NWF - NZ Windfarms

[blackcap]

I shall be bloody pippy if they do sell out. One buys a stock with an eye to the future, there follow years of no dividends and nail-biting as they stagger along then as soon as things smooth out and there is a prospect of good divs, they get sold out from under.

I think the chairman explained at the AGM the rationale and that as a stand alone entity in the current market it does not really make sense for NWF to continue as is as they are more valuable to another gentailer or another entity that has another source of energy production. So it really does make good sense for them to seek a suitor.

[Well Endowed]

a continuation of the very attractive spot pricing. Shaping up to be a bumper quarter!

https://www.electricityinfo.co.nz/

[Arthur]

Futures now over $100 early next year, which is much higher than they normally receive. They might be running harder given the present revenues, but costs should not be up that much. My wildly optimistic guess is revenue of over $11,000,000 this year and a profit of $5,000,000. The last few months make a cheap takeover less likely. Disclosure - hold a token number of shares, should of topped up when they were being dumped.

[blackcap]

Futures now over $100 early next year, which is much higher than they normally receive. They might be running harder given the present revenues, but costs should not be up that much. My wildly optimistic guess is revenue of over $11,000,000 this year and a profit of $5,000,000. The last few months make a cheap takeover less likely. Disclosure - hold a token number of shares, should of topped up when they were being dumped.

I'm not sure about the last few months making a cheap takeover less likely. A takeover or buyout if it were to happen would not be cheap, it would be fairly priced. If someone came and offered 22 cents I would take that all day. Stand alone, NWF cannot expect to make more than $2m per annum in normal circumstances, and if there was a lot of water then $1m or zero profit is normal. For a company with 288m shares on issue, that makes 15 cents about fully valued. But to another gentailer etc there is more value than 15 cents and they may wish to pay more and I as a shareholder would be happy to accept.
Very happy about the current conditions, who knows, the board may wish to do a buyback or pay off those assets we bought last year.

[Well Endowed]

2 weeks away from the quarterly, featuring a period of hefty spot pricing. Share price has held up nicely and has barely moved in the past couple months during all the market instability. Have seen steady accumulation around 14c.

Hopefully we might also get an update on the October 5th announcement re: FNZC strategic review

[Blendy]

Thank you for the reminder - I'm looking forward to the quarterly update. Already a very nice green figure in my portfolio, but 14.5c is too much of a bargain to sell up yet.

[JAYAY]

I never was a fan of hedging.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...959/294217.pdf

[Well Endowed]

disappointing they couldn't structure their hedges in such a way that they don't remove the upside from the equation.

I'm not all that familiar with the electricity market, but would be the equivalent of buying some out of the money puts, paying away the premium and leaving the upside unhedged. Looks like they've got a collar on to cover the downside premium/cost.

[Jantar]

I never was a fan of hedging.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...959/294217.pdf

Yet this very example shows the benefit of hedging overall. Yes when prices are high there is a cost to hedge yet the revenue still increased by over $700k from the corresponding period the previous year. If the gas shortage had not happened causing spring prices to be low then that same hedge would have been a positive number to off set the potential losses of low prices.

[Dassets]

The instruments that you describe dont really exist.