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  1. #521
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    BP, I never said I or the big shareholders were happy.
    If these consultants can come up with big savings then I will be happy but I am not building up high expectations.

  2. #522
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Monthly reporting time ... well, for CEN this is: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241356.pdf

    Highlights:
    The average NI unit price achieved ($68 / MWh) is well above the average unit price NWF achieved last year ($55.37 for NWF) and much better than the average unit price for the same month last year ($54 / MWh). Obviously - we had some cold spells, but maybe the effect of the capacity reduction (CEN mothballing Huntly) starts to kick in as well?

    More wind (and more wind-electricity generated) in July 16 than in July 15. I didn't try to run the charts back into numbers, but just looking at the pictures - I'd say something like 25 to 50% more wind power generated in July 2016 (vs July 2015):

    2015 graph:
    Windpower2015July.JPG

    2016 graph:
    Windpower2016July.JPG


    On the downside:
    Plenty of water in the hydro storage and not that much wind in the first half of August.
    Overall electricity demand down 3% compared to last year.

    Still - looks sort of promising. Should shape up to a good first quarter and support the current SP;
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 16-08-2016 at 10:48 AM. Reason: pressed the save button much too early ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #523
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    ........
    The average NI unit price achieved ($68 / MWh) is well above the average unit price NWF achieved last year ($55.37 for NWF) and much better than the average unit price for the same month last year ($54 / MWh). .......
    The main reason for the disparity in average price reported by CEN and that by NWF is because of wind generation, and the way that pricing on the NZEM is discovered. On the (very) few times that wind generation is exactly where it is forecast to be, the prices shown on Transpower's forward schedules, both short and long, are very close to the final prices. But when the North Island wind is less than forecast, then peaking plant at $65 or more is required to replace it. When the wind is stronger than forecast, then scheduled peaking plant is not dispatched and the price will fall to that of stored hydro water.

    We have seen this happening for many years now, and that is why CEN reports wind generation even though they do not have any wind themselves. Wind directly affects the prices.

    NWF only has wind, and they will not hedge against those time when the wind doesn't blow. This means that when the wind blows strongly, they generate plenty and achieve only low prices. When the wind does not blow, prices go high, but NWF cannot generate, so doesn't realise those same higher prices. For NWF to be in a sustainable profit situation they need to reduce their average cost of generation to below the cost of generation by gas fired plant, or hedge against those high price periods where they are not generating. Both would be better.

    The answer they gave to hedging at the last AGM showed quite clearly that they only ever considered hedging against generation, not against lack of generation.

  4. #524
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    ...

    NWF only has wind, and they will not hedge against those time when the wind doesn't blow. This means that when the wind blows strongly, they generate plenty and achieve only low prices. When the wind does not blow, prices go high, but NWF cannot generate, so doesn't realise those same higher prices.
    ...
    True - however this dynamics was unchanged in July 2015 as well as in July 2016 (and at any other point in time), however the average July 2016 power prices are well above the average July 2015 power prices. This should benefit even wind generators, particularly considering that they generated more electricity (at higher power prices) in July 2016 than in July 2015 at lower power prices (which somewhats negates your argument, but I agree, there are other factors to consider as well).

    What I wanted to say is - based on this report (and assuming the trend sticks around) - has Q1 2017 for NWF the potential to look much better than Q1 2016 ... and this must be good (if you are still holding ...)!
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  5. #525
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    .... ... and this must be good (if you are still holding ...)!
    Still holding and increasing. NWF has the ability to be very profitable as soon as they reduce their cost structure.

  6. #526
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    I guess not enough "flesh" to assess whether this is a good or a bad thing for NWF:

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/NWF/announcements/287522

    I agree - the outcome of the agreed process will be price sensitive, but based on the currently provided information is it unclear to me whether it will push the price up or down.

    On the other hand ... it is already a good thing that they found enough common ground to sign a MoU together with PNCC. So maybe a time to be cautiously optimistic - there is a plan to reduce the uncertainty swirling around the consents process.
    ----
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  7. #527
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    It is a good thing that they won't be spending as much on legal fees, so it all helps.

  8. #528
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    The announcement is not clear on who will be paying for the Independent Acoustics Expert from Australia. I.E. how independent is he going to be?

  9. #529
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JAYAY View Post
    The announcement is not clear on who will be paying for the Independent Acoustics Expert from Australia. I.E. how independent is he going to be?
    In all likelihood this will be NWF. That's the way it is in resource consent hearings ... it is usually the applicant paying for experts.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #530
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Default just when you thought they could start earning money ...

    Annual results are out.

    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/242541.pdf

    It seems to be a tradition to release negative results towards the end of the day, and NWF is in this regard no exception.

    Anyway - more power generated at a lower price (we knew that bit already) and a $4.9m impairment assuming lower future power prices (based on MoB numbers) results in a $3.9m loss.

    Cash increased despite the $1m one off payment from Windflow only by roughly 600k, this makes you wonder how the next year will go ... but hey, maybe they finally manage to reduce these annoying legal fees (still 433k). Doubt however the latter, given that the resource consent process is still lingering.

    So we can do what we always did: hope for more wind, higher power prices and a better board.

    But hey - they even talk about the board being prepared to consider a divie for 2017. This will bring the SP into the stratosphere! Hope though the consideration will not be too exhausting for the new board, otherwise they might need to increase the board fees.

    Discl: not one of my better investments. This will teach me to invest in environmentally friendly technologies ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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