TPI - Transpacific Industries Group

[PSE]

Thanks Joshuatree, where TPI has reported writedowns on industrial TOX seems to have found a nice niche in coal seam gas is this correct.
A much nicer record, are you expecting the growth to continue?
The industry is a nice one but TPI need to demonstrate they can capitalise on it like TOX has done. Presumably you consider the price relative to the balance sheet and growth prospects more attractive for TOX than for TPI?

[Joshuatree]

In a word yes. As the presentation says;The hazardous waste Division has less competition, higher margins and is a growth industry.More LNG then CSG i believe.

60% of TOX rev under long term contract with blue chip companies. "Even though trading conditions are challenging across most sectors at pit we are forecasting to be in line with market EBITDA expectations".

I used to be int in TPI but a philantrophic ex portfolio investment adviser who knows how to really drill down and analyse(i don't) shared why TPI was no longer a recovery stock and pretty low in the Investment grade universe..I haven't kept up with TPI; so maybe things have changed so good luck with your contrarian play. .

[PSE]

Thanks for that Joshuatree, looks like you made a good decision. I think the LNG you are talking about comes from coal seam gas, this is a great industry to be in as public opposition to the coal seam gas has been growing requiring more expensive remediation.
People in the industry should have seen it.
It is very toxic, I am a holder of STO. No offense but the long term contract thing soundss like B.S to me. It's like all mining services companies have most of their operations outside Aust now- yeah right.
The Roma wells for Gladstone LNG have started to produce less fluid, good for STO.
I think you made a great choice but maybe worth checking that they are tied to the long term waste from operations and not thru development phase. We now have enough gas for 18 years for a 20 year life so development r more gas is a few years away.
Re TPI, I read analysts reports but as a contrarian investor just to understand 'what the enemy is thinking'' if you like. I am very disappointed that the CEO Bob Boucher has resigned just as the turnaround gains steam. I will be watching to see who the next CEO is - if it is another deworsefier (using peter lynch's term) I may have to cut my losses.
However, the moving back home excuse seems plausible to me. Explains the generous offer to stay in January, discussions may have been occurring then.
Re analysts I think it is impossible to beat them at their own game but I am playing by a different rulebook which is hoe I can succeed.
I like growth companies but just feel happier owning something unloved and cheap as I have no faith in future forecasts.

[PSE]

Generally better to read only the balance sheets/income statements and avoid the glossy investor presentations. They are all great at talking a story, TOX has been backing this up which is ideal but doesn't mean you should let them play with your head.

[percy]

Generally better to read only the balance sheets/income statements and avoid the glossy investor presentations. They are all great at talking a story, TOX has been backing this up which is ideal but doesn't mean you should let them play with your head.

I think it is very important to read "the glossy investor presentations".
All you need is a good memory.
Then you can judge which companies deliver on what they say they will do.
Some do,some don't,so easy to just back the achievers, and leave the tossers to others!
TPI has a history of non achievement.!

[PSE]

I think it is very important to read "the glossy investor presentations".
All you need is a good memory.
Then you can judge which companies deliver on what they say they will do.
Some do,some don't,so easy to just back the achievers, and leave the tossers to others!
TPI has a history of non achievement.!

Watch and see Percy, this will prove again why value investing (as opposed to picking the most promising companies as everyone else is doing) is the only method that works.
As if more proof was needed.
All I need the management of this company to do is not to stuff it up, I will be watching in case they do. The fact they hired Bob and repaired the balance sheet means that they seem for now to be on the same page.
The underlying business is a good one and when the market realises this I expect the company to return to about $1.1 which will represent another nice profit for me.
I will sign out for a while to stop overanalysing the market.

[shasta]

Bit of a thread bump, but I've been casting my eye on CWY.

The new incarnation of TPI and who have recently acquired TOX, who for a long time seen as a better company in the same waste management industry.

With expected synergy savings of $35m over 2 years, EPS accreditive, generating decent cashflows.

I like the fact they raised well over $500m capital component of the takeover, so debt level still relatively low.

The extra shares will impact EPS in the short term as settlement isn't until June 2018.

Part of my energy based focus on the ASX.

Stacks up a bit better than BIN, who have made there own acquisitions recently and the SP surged.

Disc: Not holding CWY yet.

[percy]

CWY pe 31.96...dividend yield 1.47%
TOX pe 47.89....dividend yield 2.79%.
Bit rich.?

[shasta]

Hi Percy

Are these historical figures, TOX is able to pay out a dividend up to 5c in addition to the 3.425 per share they will receive, TOX can also use up excess imputation credits with a special dividend, to be deducted from final price.

CWY will be increasing there dividend as well, gone up from 1.7cps to 2.1cps FY16/17, any increase will still be at the lower end of the payout range.

I see an opportunity until June with extra shares/bit of overhang with TOX shareholders possibly cashing up, to buy in with a stagnant/weak share price.

Next announcement to the market will hopefully reveal figures in line/exceeding FY18 guidance excluding the TOX contribution.

I see the waste management industry as an extension of the environmental/clean technology sector, and the scale they now have sets them up nicely.

Not without risk, may take more time than anticipated to see the full impact of the takeover and benefits but i see more growth ahead.

Disc - Not a holder yet, still crunching the numbers

[percy]

Yes the figures are historical,yet are up todate..
They are from ANZ Securities web site.