ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[bull....]

Still not as expected figure. But still a second division win. Better than nothing. It will help the company financially I am sure

yup its money they didnt have before

[Beagle]

5% of a $100,000,000 is still $5,000,000. That would be a game changer for ALF. Not sure it will be $100m but just saying the potential is big.

Further to Lola's response, bear in mind that there are 2 'tranches' to ALF receiving money from this litigation process. They are outlined in my ST post here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post663892

I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum.

The example used before the courts (and is public information) by PWC's lawyers is as follows. The 3rd column is my notes and represents my current understanding which could be flawed.

Claim (Resolution Sum)	$334,000,000	This number subject to interest rate penalty and for this table assumes it to be 0.00%
Less Project Costs (say)	$3,000,000
Net Resolution Sum	$331,000,000
SPF Services Fee 42.5% of the Net Resolution Sum	$140,675,000
Less Liquidation costs (say)	$2,000,000
The Net Amount – Available to PVL Creditors	$188,325,000	ALF get 5% of this amount for the 1st tranch (the Assignment Fee). Under this example it represents $9.42 million
Distribution of Net Amount
To SPF as 1st Secured Creditor	$188,115,226
Other Creditors	$209,774

The last real variable for tranch 1 is the interest rate. I have looked at cases in the past regarding this type of litigation and do not think 8%/annum compounding is unreasonable at all. Ignoring the table above for now (which except for column 3 was put together by PWC's lawyers), the original amount filed against PWC in 2013 was $302 million.

So 8% compounding on $302 million from 2013 equals $445 million in 2018
Using the remainder of the table above, this hypothetical scenario brings ALF's tranch 1 from $9.42 million to $12.6 million (unless I have slipped a decimal point somewhere).

Receiving $21mil when ALF's current market capitalisation is $14 mil would be interesting.!
The trial is due to commence in February 2018,which is not far away.
Should there be an out of court settlement, we may know in February exactly amount ALF will receive.

A selection of posts over recent months. Reality bites pretty hard I think. The suspect the lawyers probably had the clock ticking at well over $1,000 an hour for many, many thousands of hours and they're the real winners and shareholders get nothing but crumbs.

To add insult to injury ALF cautioned about the second half prospects at the time of their half year announcement.

Back to 5 cents ?

[percy]

Been a fun ride.!
Brought a nice holding, then sold half,and left with the balance owing me 3.7cps.
Not a "free" ride [yet].!!.
Also collected the modest divie.

[Beagle]

Been a fun ride.!
Brought a nice holding, then sold half,and left with the balance owing me 3.7cps.
Not a "free" ride [yet].!!.
Also collected the modest divie.

Good for you, when buying flea ridden penny dreadful mutts its best to sell half when they show the first sign of life....long before they have to run in the first greyhound trial. Wonder how anyone who's dug themselves into a very deep position on this one is feeling though...
I learned long ago in the GFC that once the litigation or insolvency experts get involved at about $10,000 a day per person there's very little if anything left over for shareholders.

[percy]

Good for you, when buying flea ridden penny dreadful mutts its best to sell half when they show the first sign of life....long before they have to run in the first greyhound trial. Wonder how anyone who's dug themselves into a very deep position on this one is feeling though...
I learned long ago in the GFC that once the litigation or insolvency experts get involved at about $10,000 a day per person there's very little if anything left over for shareholders.

Yes the litigation was always "pie in the sky" for ALF shareholders.
That was not what attracted me,or the reasons I am happy to hold.
Online, finance and basic business has plenty of upside,from the more solid foundations, the focussed directors/management have laid.
From what I hear ALF are very customer driven now days.Nimble footed.
No fleas left.

[golden city]

I am focus more on recovery on solid ground too. Nz has more cow sheep than people. It is a good business to grow

[Hectorplains]

I am focus more on recovery on solid ground too. Nz has more cow sheep than people. It is a good business to grow

Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!

Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....

[Beagle]

Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!

Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....

Agree 100% although I would call it straighter and say its a pittance compared to the very loudly mooted odds...this extract from the half year report on 21 February 2018 gives an insight to the full year prospects

For the second six months of the year dairy herd sales contribute a
significant proportion of the annual profit. Many of these dairy herd sales
are contracted well in advance of settlement. Although it is still early in
the season, to date the forward sales herd contracts due for settlement
predominantly in May are tracking behind the same time last year and it may
be that the high volume of dairy herd sales that the company experienced in
the second half last year may not be repeated which would have a material
negative impact on the full year result.

Emphasis added.

They might match last year if shareholders are fortunate after accounting for the net litigation proceeds.
People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good. I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.

[dodgy]

Agree 100% although I would call it straighter and say its a pittance compared to the very loudly mooted odds...this extract from the half year report on 21 February 2018 gives an insight to the full year prospects
Emphasis added.

They might match last year if shareholders are fortunate after accounting for the net litigation proceeds.
People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good. I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.

Hi Beagle
Having attended last years AGM I came away understanding that progress may be lumpy at best but that the management and Directors are fully focused, sucecss driven with good conservative attitudes whilst also realising the future digital world potential. Yes this is cyclic but livestock trade in good and bad economies and consequently not to everyones taste. But, cast your mind back only a few years and facing extinction - these guys avoided that admirably with this written off recovery a welcome $500k bonus. Patience investing with perserverance of management. I hold .
Regards
-dodgy.

[golden city]

Totally agreed