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31-03-2018, 04:12 AM
#1101
 Originally Posted by Hectorplains
Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!
Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....
I hold a lot of ALF shares Hector. I held over 95% of them before I ever knew anything about this court case. I can't speak for others here but I bought and continue to hold on fundamentals. Any potential income attributable to these legal proceedings was an unexpected bonus with zero downside attached.
As such, I am pleased with the additional capital injection, the quantum of which was completely out of ALF's hands.
If you believe ALF's fundamentals are in question, I am interested in where your concerns lie.
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31-03-2018, 04:56 AM
#1102
Originally Posted by Beagle
.... People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point .....
The first news on these court proceedings was ALF's market release on 5-April-2017. I can't see where you get your 5c datum from. For the 4 months preceding this announcement ALF's share price was pretty consistent at 7c per share.
Originally Posted by Beagle
.... and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good....
As with Hector, If you have concerns about ALF's fundamentals then I am interested in where your concerns lie. The balance sheet, cashflows, equity, and P&L all look good to me. If sellers wish to sell for 8c (with sufficient volume) then I'm buying.
Originally Posted by Beagle
.... I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.
I suggest the vast majority of NZX listed companies are difficult to make a reliable call on in two years from now, otherwise we would all be filthy rich. 
Last edited by Vaygor1; 31-03-2018 at 05:08 AM.
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31-03-2018, 07:58 AM
#1103
Vaygor1.
Thank you for your sensible,knowledgeable post.
Your clarity of thought posts,together with sound research, makes for successful ALF investing.
Last edited by percy; 31-03-2018 at 08:05 AM.
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31-03-2018, 10:09 AM
#1104
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
I hold a lot of ALF shares Hector. I held over 95% of them before I ever knew anything about this court case. I can't speak for others here but I bought and continue to hold on fundamentals. Any potential income attributable to these legal proceedings was an unexpected bonus with zero downside attached.
As such, I am pleased with the additional capital injection, the quantum of which was completely out of ALF's hands.
If you believe ALF's fundamentals are in question, I am interested in where your concerns lie.
I don't see much in the half year results that are exciting? Profit, basically, halved on previous year and "a material negative impact on the full year result" warning from falling dairy herd sales. Smells like further disappointment ahead.
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31-03-2018, 10:35 AM
#1105
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
The first news on these court proceedings was ALF's market release on 5-April-2017. I can't see where you get your 5c datum from. For the 4 months preceding this announcement ALF's share price was pretty consistent at 7c per share.
As with Hector, If you have concerns about ALF's fundamentals then I am interested in where your concerns lie. The balance sheet, cashflows, equity, and P&L all look good to me. If sellers wish to sell for 8c (with sufficient volume) then I'm buying.
I suggest the vast majority of NZX listed companies are difficult to make a reliable call on in two years from now, otherwise we would all be filthy rich. :)
SUM are easier than others mate.
Come on, lets get real...you've been hoping for and talking about this settlement being a real game changer...pretty sure you were talking about 10 cps or even more.
Definition of a good long term hold is s short term trade gone badly wrong...
Last edited by Beagle; 31-03-2018 at 10:37 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-03-2018, 10:40 AM
#1106
Originally Posted by Vaygor1
I hold a lot of ALF shares Hector. I held over 95% of them before I ever knew anything about this court case. I can't speak for others here but I bought and continue to hold on fundamentals. Any potential income attributable to these legal proceedings was an unexpected bonus with zero downside attached.
As such, I am pleased with the additional capital injection, the quantum of which was completely out of ALF's hands.
If you believe ALF's fundamentals are in question, I am interested in where your concerns lie.
That does not fit with you talking up the litigation proceeds on here and at the pub at the Auckland meeting. It's time to admit you got this wrong and should have known the legal team would have basically eaten the entire pie and left some crumbs on the floor for shareholders. Anyway you have to keep saying its good and keep holding as I think we can agree on one thing, it would be incredibly hard for you to sell your sized stake.
Concerns, see half year announcement #1098
Anyway...personally I find you a likeable rogue so I'll leave my critique at that but please feel free to launch the takeover by yourself 
Last edited by Beagle; 31-03-2018 at 10:47 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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31-03-2018, 10:59 AM
#1107
Originally Posted by Hectorplains
I don't see much in the half year results that are exciting? Profit, basically, halved on previous year and "a material negative impact on the full year result" warning from falling dairy herd sales. Smells like further disappointment ahead.
ALF's FY Surplus (Deficit) before Tax over the last five years is as follows:
| Year |
Net Surplus (Deficit) Before Tax
NZ$ (000) |
| 2013 |
(2,670) |
| 2014 |
1,161 |
| 2015 |
1,115 |
| 2016 |
1,574 |
| 2017 |
2,387 |
For the second six months of ALF's financial year, dairy herd sales contribute a significant proportion of the annual profit.
ALF's H1 result this financial year plus the after tax income from this litigation exceeds the previous H1 result.
ALF's guidance announcements are highly conservative in the last many years (just the way I like them).
If ALF's 2018 Annual Result re the above table exceed NZ$2 million I'll be very happy.
There is much more to tell, however I suggest you read and absorb the financial statements yourself rather than smell them.
Last edited by Vaygor1; 31-03-2018 at 11:01 AM.
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31-03-2018, 12:12 PM
#1108
Originally Posted by Beagle
That does not fit with you talking up the litigation proceeds on here and at the pub at the Auckland meeting. It's time to admit you got this wrong and should have known the legal team would have basically eaten the entire pie and left some crumbs on the floor for shareholders. Anyway you have to keep saying its good and keep holding as I think we can agree on one thing, it would be incredibly hard for you to sell your sized stake.
Concerns, see half year announcement #1098
Anyway...personally I find you a likeable rogue so I'll leave my critique at that but please feel free to launch the takeover by yourself
Always enjoy your posts Beagle.
I believe I have never made an effort to 'talk it up'. The facts show the potential (as presented by PWC's lawyers themselves) was certainly a lot higher than than the amount recovered, however there was always a chance the figure could be as low as $0.00 as many have stated.
Referring my post https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post691896 :
"I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum."
So what I expected has in fact transpired. It would have been nice if the figure was higher of course but circa 1/2 a million bonus is better than nothing last time I looked.
Refer my previous post regarding ALF fundamentals. They are in good shape and if you believe otherwise then I am genuinely interested in why. I'm talking proper fundamentals, not just how well they might be doing against last year and conjecture regarding ALF's conservative guidance.
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31-03-2018, 12:52 PM
#1109
Originally Posted by Beagle
SUM are easier than others mate.
Come on, lets get real...you've been hoping for and talking about this settlement being a real game changer...pretty sure you were talking about 10 cps or even more.
Definition of a good long term hold is s short term trade gone badly wrong...
Gee Beagle. Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning?
I spoke about it being a potential game changer, which it was. As you know I have never been a short term trader, particularly in ALF unless accumulating these shares over a 7 year period falls within the bounds of short term.
ALF last five years.jpg
I obviously have a lot to learn in making a CG of a pitiful 400% over 5 years. More if you go back 7. You think SUM (which I hold) will manage that?
I have no intention of selling.
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31-03-2018, 01:05 PM
#1110
Maybe the full moon.?
Affects hounds..!..lol.
Last edited by percy; 31-03-2018 at 01:09 PM.
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