ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[Lizard]

i spend zero time analysing the ALF's of this world in any serious way these days.

Since my weekend has been entirely taken up with a house full of super-charged 14 year olds, analysing ALF in the gaps seemed as good as anything. Something about trying to find order in chaos!

With the last one about to depart, I can now retreat to the garden...

[Alan3285]

I agree that this is too hard to value and probably too risky to buy. ANF receivership might also have some impact on getting out the ALF FY accounts on time? If so, could just see a suspension on 1 September?

On some real stab-in-the-dark figures, I think even a punt would have to be at below 1.2 cps to give a chance of decent return - and then probably only works after recapitalisation, since any low share price before then would just transfer more value to a "white-knight" investor.

So overall, valuation is a bit pointless for now. But I am still a bit fascinated to see how the Hanover-ALF deal worked out in hindsight. In the end, Tony Gibbs was probably right with his plate of custard remarks. If value has been transferred, it seems most likely to have been from Hanover Investors to banks (as first lenders on some Axis group assets and lenders to ALF) and possibly Treasury?

Yes - I think from what you've posted you're probably right.

The interesting part is still whether those loans are ring fenced in any way, or if they come right through to the shareholders in ALF.

Alan.

[winner69]

Liz - wonder what a ALF balance sheet will look like without the ANF part in it .... still sick as I say

Still wondering where Resimac's commitment went to

And the Allied / Spiers arrangements are a real mess as well methinks

[Lizard]

Liz - wonder what a ALF balance sheet will look like without the ANF part in it .... still sick as I say

I'm guessing $40m equity tops. Debt down to $70m ish? Maybe still a bit higher than that. Trouble is, other than sales of Hanover assets, there's not much coming in to pay the interest with. And the covenants/deadlines are just going to keep coming. Hence still in discussions with potential investors.

It's all guesswork though as I'm no expert and can't figure where to allocate the inter-company bits.

Still wondering where Resimac's commitment went to.

Yes, that seems to have been a bit of distract-and-delay tactic.

And the Allied / Spiers arrangements are a real mess as well methinks

I haven't gone through them in great detail, but presume that just once again the whole strategy is to stay alive at any costs by sacrificing some of the security (in the form of the best assets) in exchange for cash/liquidity. Not sure if the losers here will be Speirs, the BNZ or the Treasury, but debenture holders were already secured by the govt guarantee, so the reduced quality of debenture assets they had doesn't appear to have hurt them too much. Maybe. As I say, didn't go through very closely, so might have missed something.

[bung5]

Well expect resignations in the coming days as well

"John Loughlin has resigned as chairman of Allied Farmers after its finance unit was placed in receivership. "

There we go

[minimoke]

"John Loughlin has resigned as chairman of Allied Farmers after its finance unit was placed in receivership. "

There we go

Unlike captains of Korean fishing vessels he quickly leapt at the first sign the ship was going down

[Dr_Who]

ALF was game over way before the hangover backdoor listing.

[minimoke]

ALF was game over way before the hangover backdoor listing.

Clearly Mr Market sees there still opportunities. Up 11.5% 2.9 cents on opening.

[winner69]

NBR jokers must read Sharetrader as even they are now asking how much borrowings do ALF really have and ask the same sort of questions that Lizard was asking over the weekend

Interesting because it raises the question og how much equity is there really left in ALF now ANF gone .... maybe not even enough to pay the bondholders Alan?

I wonder if anybody at ALF actually knows what the real story is .... or if they do didn't Shoeshine once use that word starting with a d

Still wondering whether Resimac was even interested in 'commiting' capital to ALF ... who was it just one big story

[winner69]

Serepisos apparently hasn't paid for the sponsership of the Wellington cup last year ... although he has got all the publicity plus more he wanted as the saviour .... Serepisos wanting the Wgtn City Council to help out the Phoenix ... wonder if Wellington Cricket has got the money for the ALLIED FINANCE Basin Reserve yet ... and no doubt plenty of Allied stuff on the the Porsche racing around the country most weekends

Jeez the rich have fun don't they ... at other peoples expense