ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[minimoke]

Dang, have I just dropped 22% off ALF's value? Someone jsut sold out at 2.1c!

And wasn't he lucky. The person who has sold 15,000 at 1.8c now only has a one way ticket to the Gold Coast. Great way of increase the average IQ of both countries I reckon.

[J R Ewing]

And wasn't he lucky. The person who has sold 15,000 at 1.8c now only has a one way ticket to the Gold Coast. Great way of increase the average IQ of both countries I reckon.

I didn't realise you were one of Rob's Mob!

[Vaygor1]

This report out today. https://nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/232797

Does that affect your assessment of ALF Vaygor?

Interesting to know if you still feel this way Vaygor..... Someone is demanding money from them that they don't have. .... I hope they can get through this crisis, maybe a capital raising from their loyal supporters, but I don't like the look of it.

I admire your optimism - you still think ALF will be around tomorrow....

..... It won’t be long before those 200k shares won’t be worth enough to buy a glass of Pimms at the local Lawn Bowls club.

Well hello everyone.

It is nice to know that my efforts in detailing ALF over the last month or so haven't gone unnoticed. For a time there I was beginning to think I was the only shareholder or interested party left on the planet.

And I am encouraged by the fact that there is (hopefully) a slight interest out there in what I think given the recent news.... so here it is.

In my most humble of opinions this $540k issue is a storm in a teacup. By comparison to the problems that ALF has had in the past few years this issue is petty cash and if it weren't for the NZX rules, would hardly warrant a mention.

I am not saying (and have never said) that ALF won't impersonate a frog and croak. What I have said is that the odds of that occurring now are far far less then in the past since they began buying sawmills. And this is what I still think.

I for one will not be selling any. I have bought a lot of ALF for a paltry sum; less than I donate annually to charity, so I really do have nothing to lose. I really love your contributions Minimoke; they will never cease to make me smile and I am glad to see you're back.

Just to paint a picture here, If I were to buy 500,000 shares in ALF at 1.8c/share; that is over 0.5% of the entire company, I would not even make minimum brokerage.

If ALF have to write down the $3.75M or the lions share of it due to this loan enforcement then that will hurt their 6 monthly report. They will likely make a small loss instead of a small profit.

Those who win in this share market game do so at the expense of those with fear and greed. Right now for ALF it is all fear.

[Vaygor1]

About 30 hours since my post below.
I would have thought I'd got some bites by now... not even a nibble?

Can someone tell me if it's right to answer a rhetorical question?

[digger]

About 30 hours since my post below.
I would have thought I'd got some bites by now... not even a nibble?

Can someone tell me if it's right to answer a rhetorical question?

Probably because it is the walking dead and no one is really interested anymore. I would say the main asset ALF has is the 70% holding in NZ Farmers Livestock. This firm trades in Morrinsville and I know the staff,but for some reason the staff do not know that 70% of there company is owned by ALF. Just two weeks ago I was talking to one of the top guys who wanted me to come back and trade with them[I was the one mentioned in a previous post who left ALF as it is shakey} and I said ALF would probably go under.He said who cares as he does not seem to know that there main asset is NZF Livestock.

If you do not know the NZF livestock structure just google it and ask. In dec 2011 it has 70% ownership by ALF and if this has been sold since I am not aware.

[Balance]

Probably because it is the walking dead and no one is really interested anymore. I would say the main asset ALF has is the 70% holding in NZ Farmers Livestock. This firm trades in Morrinsville and I know the staff,but for some reason the staff do not know that 70% of there company is owned by ALF. Just two weeks ago I was talking to one of the top guys who wanted me to come back and trade with them[I was the one mentioned in a previous post who left ALF as it is shakey} and I said ALF would probably go under.He said who cares as he does not seem to know that there main asset is NZF Livestock.

If you do not know the NZF livestock structure just google it and ask. In dec 2011 it has 70% ownership by ALF and if this has been sold since I am not aware.

I know of individuals who took huge positions in Feltex and Fortex as they went down and down, and then went broke.

I know of individuals who took huge positions in News Corp and Air NZ as they went down and down, and then revived spectacularly.

Is ALF a Feltex or is it a News Corp?

Is ALF a Fortex or is it an Air NZ?

Better things to do in life than to bet on a walking dead.

Funny how moths keep flying at an open flame until their wings are burnt off and they drop to the ground to die a slow death, or get eaten alive.

[Vaygor1]

I don't look at ALF as the "walking dead" but more like the "crawling alive".
Your view is correct Balance.
This last $540k could be straw that breaks the CAML's back....
..... or ALF just might stand up and start walking again, but I think we might have wait 6 months more for that to happen now.
Only 2 weeks more to wait for fresh data.

[minimoke]

Is ALF a Fortex or is it an Air NZ?

I followed the Air NZ knife as it fell and put a $15k hand out to catch it 2 cents off its bottom. That was a decision made for political reasons not financial. I had the view that the government would not let the national flag bearing airline collapse. Thankfully I was right and that punt paid off handsomely.

I see ALF in a little of the same light since CAMeL is there to maximise the Crowns (taxpayers) generosity in bailing out dodgy finance companies backed by the misguided, greedy and financially illiterate. It is there to get the very best out of Allied Nationwide Finance. It is not there to prop up some decidedly fragile company because it can’t pay a well overdue debt. Has anyone seen the govt rush in to prop up subcontractors after the Mainzeal receivership – No! So why should they for ALF?

So politically, there ought to be no will to keep ALF going. The govt is very keen to let the “market” decide things so CAMeL is likely to stay out. Vaygor – you will know CAMel’s position before two weeks is out. By my reckoning your clock should be set for the 25^th of Feb rather than waiting a couple of weeks for fresh data.

[minimoke]

Yep, you can't knock buying on the way down. It's a must if you want to own stock cheaply. .

I’ve never bought on the way down. I’ve bought, and bought once, at a point where I think there will be a recovery. I think buying on the way down is madness

I’ve never really taken to the idea of dollar cost averaging on a falling stock. The math never added up. Say I was to take $1,000 and buy 1000 “ALF” shares and then “ALF” hits 50c. My original $1,000 has taken a 50% hit. If I want to get it back to $1,000 “ALF” would have to make a 100% gain.

Say I buy another $1000 worth at 50c. It then drops a further 50%. My Original $1000 is now worth $250.and I need a 400% increase to break even.

So I buy another $1,000 at 25c. And these loose 50%. My original is now worth $125 and I need an 800% increase to break even.

For my forth trade I’ll spend another $1000 but I take another 50% hit. My original is now worth $62.50.

So after four trades my $4,000 is worth $937. I’ve now ventured well and truly into 10 bagger territory and we all should know how elusive that Holy Grail is.

The winner with this approach is of course the broker.

Vaygor may argue the chance of ALF taking 4 50% drops is improbable. I suggest he re-reads this thread.

[minimoke]

it never hurts to split that money into 3 lots and buy incrementally if you truly believe it will rebound. If the stock goes down, sweet, you can buy again to take the average price down. If it goes down again, you can buy further. However, the main thing is you need to believe the stock is going to rebound if you do this!

It still doesn’t make sense.

Say you have $3,000 and you bought $1000 ALF at $0.04, another $1000 at $0.035 and a further at $0.03. That’s your three trades done for 88,053 shares. Today they are worth $1,761 because someone will buy them at $0.02. To recoup your $3,000 plus four lots of brokerage you will need to sell at $0.035. That is well above the value pre loan enforcement announcement.

Now the people who are wanting to enforce the loan have inside knowledge so they have a very good understanding of ALF’s financial position and they don’t consider the $0.029 value, when they sent their letter, sustainable. When ALF had a market cap of $2.4m they announced they didn’t have $540k on hand and were likely to write off another $3.5m. What in this scenario suggests a value of $0.35? Any Hanover investors out there who can shed some light on what the good news actually is?