ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[minimoke]

I think you missed my statement saying you need to BELIEVE that the stock is going to rebound.

I did see it - thats why I asked for Hanover investors to shed some light since the evidence suggests they base their decisions purely on belief

[minimoke]

Are we seeing a bit of market manipulation today? Someone with $50 has just picked up $17 worth of shares from the 130,000 seller for an 11% increase in market cap.

[Baddarcy]

Yes, someone was doing it for three days last week to NTL, bumping up the SP at the end of the day. Didn't really get any takers to it though; most traders aren't that dumb...

yeah seen similar trades in DIL too. I wrote it off as micro trading software as i keep hearing adds on the radio as i drive to work each morning talking about it. Still can't believe people are that dumb...... :-)

[J R Ewing]

Are we seeing a bit of market manipulation today? Someone with $50 has just picked up $17 worth of shares from the 130,000 seller for an 11% increase in market cap.

What a waste of $17.40!! They could have bought a lotto ticket for less than that!

[minimoke]

Well its certainly an intersting days trading. Firstly someone drives the value up 11% on one miniscule trade.

Now we have someone driving the value up to 2.1c (spending $5,400) and then dragging it down to 1.8 spending $3,300. Thats a dollar average of 1.9c. Thats just nuts. And why wouldn't he spend another $5 to mop up the last 300 on offer at 1.8C. His budget must have been $9,300 and not a penny more

In the meantime the first investor is weeping, having seen 10% written off their play.

[minimoke]

In the meantime the first investor is weeping, having seen 10% written off their play.

And now the "serious" bids come in at 1.5c. So thats a 25% loss on the day meaning he needs a 33% increase in value to break even. Can his 870 shares even buy a lotto ticket now?

But there is a new heavy hitter in the wings - 15,000 at 1.1c. These Hanover types sure know how to spend their hard earned loot.

If we needed a better example of why nutters should be kept in the asylum rather than let loose in society we only need to observe the ALF buys.

[Vaygor1]

And now the "serious" bids come in at 1.5c. So thats a 25% loss on the day meaning he needs a 33% increase in value to break even. Can his 870 shares even buy a lotto ticket now?

But there is a new heavy hitter in the wings - 15,000 at 1.1c. These Hanover types sure know how to spend their hard earned loot.

If we needed a better example of why nutters should be kept in the asylum rather than let loose in society we only need to observe the ALF buys.

In case you've been wondering, I haven't been buying any Minimoke. The time zone I'm in means I'm very lucky if I wake up in time to catch the last hour of any trading day.

I can't figure out why someone would put in a buy order at all for 15,000 shares at 1.1c. Thats a $165 purchase +$30 or 18.2% on top for brokerage. I have trouble enough accepting 0.3% brokerage. But I know... using percentages as a measure when the sp is this low doesn't really work.

[Vaygor1]

About 30 hours since my post below.
I would have thought I'd got some bites by now... not even a nibble?

Can someone tell me if it's right to answer a rhetorical question?

Probably because it is the walking dead and no one is really interested anymore. I would say the main asset ALF has is the 70% holding in NZ Farmers Livestock. This firm trades in Morrinsville and I know the staff,but for some reason the staff do not know that 70% of there company is owned by ALF. Just two weeks ago I was talking to one of the top guys who wanted me to come back and trade with them[I was the one mentioned in a previous post who left ALF as it is shakey} and I said ALF would probably go under.He said who cares as he does not seem to know that there main asset is NZF Livestock.

If you do not know the NZF livestock structure just google it and ask. In dec 2011 it has 70% ownership by ALF and if this has been sold since I am not aware.

Hi Digger.

Yes I am fully aware of this, refer https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/216844 and my post (#706) on this thread.
You may also know that NZFLs assets and trading accounts are excluded from ALFs existing security arrangements with ALFs secured lender(s) and this means you can trade Livestock through MyLiveStock (ie NZFL) without worrying about what might happen to ALF while the transactions are in midstream.

Your view means a lot to me as your perception of risk (be it right or wrong) is indicative of the perceptions of others who may be thinking about being NZFL's customers. Not sure if NZFL is ALF's biggest asset or not, but the entity is very important to them.

You may need to check the Morrinsville component. This from ALF's latest annual report (you will need to read it in context under note 14):
Allied Farmers Ltd sold it's interest in the Morrinsville saleyard as part of the sale of the livestock business. The Sale and Purchase agreement of Allied Farmers Ltd's interest in the Morrinsville saleyard to Stockmans Holdings Ltd includes the option for NZ Farmers Livestock Ltd to purchase the Morrinsville saleyard in the event of a change of control or insolvency event of Stockmans Holdings Ltd or Allied Nationwide Finance Ltd (in Recevership) no longer being the secured lender of Allied Farmers Ltd.

[minimoke]

Cmon vigor, sure it isnt you. Down to 1c today so thats a 50% loss to our earlier buyer. Market cap now less than $1m

[Vaygor1]

Honestly Minimoke I have enough ALF, and I can't stand paying double the %age to the brokers due to minimum brokerage.
If I didn't think I had enough, I would be relatively silent on ALF over the past two months compared to what I have been.
It cost me very little to acquire and, okay, at 1 cent the %age difference looks bad, but in real-dollar terms the paper loss is small.
If they go teets up (which would surprise me), it will have almost been worth the entertainment value alone.

Dang, have I just dropped 22% off ALF's value? Someone jsut sold out at 2.1c!

Are you sure you're not beating ALF down while scooping them up?