ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[bull....]

If mpi goes for the live with it option as in australia i would think as some mentioned healthy animals likely to carry a premium price in stock sales therefore good for alf in long run.

[Snoopy]

If mpi goes for the live with it option as in australia i would think as some mentioned healthy animals likely to carry a premium price in stock sales therefore good for alf in long run.

You may wish to look at this to see how the West Islander's are coping

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/pr...coplasma-bovis

I heard an interview with Keith Woodford last week on the subject. He message was:

"make sure the cure isn't worse than the disease".

But listening to vet/farmer Jakob Malmo, living with MPB sounds really bad. He is saying ideally 'don't buy in cows at all'. What would that do the the Allied Farmers operation? Then he says if you really need to buy in cows, get the cows milk tested before you buy. That sounds like a real headache. Managing MPB sounds like a longer more drawn out version of culling. Cows still have to be culled with ongoing management. It is just that a 'similar number of animals cull' takes place over a longer time, and there are a lot more tests to do on the way.

Unhealthy animals won't be let anywhere near ALF saleyards.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

It will not be in the longer term, any cows culled will need to be replaced immediately.

I am sure farmers will like their cows to be replaced immediately, but:

1/ Will there be enough calves bred locally quickly enough to replace the cows culled?
2/ Will the government payout for animals culled be enough to purchase the same number of new cows?

I am sure that the industry can cope with whatever cull is needed.

It could be a good opportunity to speed up the transition to A2 cows?

Options are to keep more heifers as replacements and cull fewer older cows. This will of course mean more shuffling of cows around the country, good for ALF but not so good for controlling disease spread.

And if shuffling cows around the country is made slower, or brought to a halt - by the paperwork war - the disease may be controlled. But it may turn out very badly for ALF?

SNOOPY

[bull....]

hey snoopy couldnt alf just run yards for infected stock and yards for healthy stock?

I see the situation as like psa short term pain but alright in the long run ... who knows may provide a opportunity to pick up some cheap alf shares a

[freddagg]

Hi Snoopy

I would say yes to 1/ because the normal annual cull is about 1 million cows per year and most of them could be used for another year if necessary and the decision to manage the disease rather than eliminate it would happen long before the bovis cull got to a million.

2/. I am not sure but for a dairy farm to be successful it has to turn its grass in to milk and cows can be leased.

3/. Actually makes it more difficult to transition the national herd to A2 because the more traits you want to breed for the slower the genetic gain. ie a potential replacement heifer not only has to be A2 but also free of M bovis .

4/. Yes, in the long term it could be bad for ALFs business model as farmers may choose to "close their herd" and never introduce outside animals

[freddagg]

hey snoopy couldnt alf just run yards for infected stock and yards for healthy stock?

No. Infected stock will always be killed. At the moment they are killing complete herds because they have identified some infected animals.

[Vaygor1]

hey snoopy couldnt alf just run yards for infected stock and yards for healthy stock?

I see the situation as like psa short term pain but alright in the long run ... who knows may provide a opportunity to pick up some cheap alf shares a

ALF with their trading app and platform, together with their robust livestock sales & purchase agreements are extremely well placed to be the preferred agent for trading without the need for stockyards IF that ever became a mandatory requirement, which it wont.

If anything, the rules and regulations to be complied with in the future (if any new rules/regiulations eventuate) will only increase the farming sector's need for agents (ALF or other) to be an integral part of the process. It will also justify the said agent to charge more for the service.

[Vaygor1]

The notion of stopping/banning cattle movements across the board is not only ridiculous, it's impossible.
This mainstream media cant be trusted to report anything without a healthy dose of scaremongering.

Additional compliance rules (if any) governing the transfer of livestock between any two parties can only work in ALF's favour imho.

https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2018/05/how-convenient/

The price drop is good news for me.. more shares for less.
ALF SP will hopefully drop more yet given the fear instilled in the market by the press.

[Hectorplains]

The notion of stopping/banning cattle movements across the board is not only ridiculous, it's impossible.
This mainstream media cant be trusted to report anything without a healthy dose of scaremongering.

Additional compliance rules (if any) governing the transfer of livestock between any two parties can only work in ALF's favour imho.

https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2018/05/how-convenient/

The price drop is good news for me.. more shares for less.
ALF SP will hopefully drop more yet given the fear instilled in the market by the press.

Cor, you've almost got it to sounding like mycoplasma bovis will be a blessing for ALF...

Great chance to average down then. Choo Choo.

[bull....]

another thing is farmers may now want to purchase there own bulls instead of getting the same one who travels around.