ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[freddagg]

Some very interesting info on M bovis and well worth a read.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...uth-islands-be

[minimoke]

I'm hoping they go with management and Not eradication. Putting faith in MPI would be a huge mistake. I know of an issue going through the courts and rate their performance 1/10. Heaven help farmers if they turn out to be anything like EQC - which i see no reason why they would not be similarly competent.

[minimoke]

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

[bull....]

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

and all those cows will need to be replaced

[Vaygor1]

Cattle in NZ: 10,400,000
M Bovis Culling: 22,332
Decrease in cattle population: One fifth of 1%

Sources:

http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_...7-04-2017.aspx

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12015937

[Vaygor1]

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

What I am a bit concerned about is ALF's H1 results looking forward.

Most livestock companies get 90% of their income in May each year.
ALF's H1/H2 results are historically a little more balanced due to the Bobby Calf season for Meat export in November each year, during ALF's H1.

With all this culling, will there be significantly less bobby calves available for slaughter and export each year as farmers replenish their stocks?

Even 150,000 culls represents a mere 0.7 of 1% decrease per annum for 2 years. I would have thought natural variance in cattle numbers each year would be more than this.

[whome]

Calf rearers will be most affected by M bovis. With uncertain supply of calves and rising milk prices hence rising milk powder calf feed prices, I see bobby calf numbers wil be massive, huge, as the only outlet available for this number of calves. 4.86 mill dairy cows-in-milk produce 4.86 mill calves, less dairy replacement stock usually 10% but this year could be 20% as dairy farmers hunker down and restrict farm access until they learn to deal with M bovis. With not much rearing, and no land or infrastructure on dairy farms to rear them, calves will go for export veal or petfood.

[percy]

Where are you Vaygor1 and Forest.?
The result was a bit of a mixed bag.Trading was challenging in both livestock and calves..
Yet I see a great lot of positives.
The settlement from litigation was a handy $441,000.
The new Livestock finance subsidiary is gaining real traction, with receivables of $4.6mil up from $2.1mil last year.
The balance sheet keeps on improving with shareholders equity going from -[$3,887,000] in 2014 to a very healthy $3,466,000 this year.

[forest]

Percy I am a bit less positive about this one and not following ALF closely. So I have no view on the latest results.

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU180...tock-trade.htm

I am not opining on this one.