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  1. #21
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    quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

    ALF aren't chicken farmers. I guess if a bird flu epidemic breaks out in NZ then sales of bird seed will decline? I wasn't aware ALF sell bird seed though.

    ALF are probably more exposed to the real estate bubble through the "First National" brand, and their finance company, which appears to be showing signs of cooling along with the general economy. There are more motivated vendor signs / mortgagee sales being marketed these days.

    Back to Bird Flu, I can't see this having any material effect on the value of ALF, unless this virus morphs into a mad cow, sheep and bird flu so that ALF have to get out of selling livestock.
    D_Pick are we a shareholder, note the slide seems to be holding in a very tight holding company.. [8D]

  2. #22
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    BRICKS I'm not a shareholder yet.

    Can you convince me that ALF is a good company to invest in with some compelling facts/figures? Or at least a good investment theme/story.

    I like their strap line in the 2005 Annual report "We are growing quietly". The share price graph tells it all differently though, it hasn't been pretty for ALF investors for the last 10 months.

    This company has many different small businesses under the Allied Farmers umbrella. It has been consistently profitable but hasn't been growing earnings at any rate to get excited about. Profit margins appear low as well.

    Not sure what their long term game plan is or where they want to position themselves? If they want to be niche player then prehaps they should specialise in something. Instead they appear to be a low growth, low margin generalist. Economies of scale appears to be important in the rural industry these days.

  3. #23
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    quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

    BRICKS I'm not a shareholder yet.

    Can you convince me that ALF is a good company to invest in with some compelling facts/figures? Or at least a good investment theme/story.

    I like their strap line in the 2005 Annual report "We are growing quietly". The share price graph tells it all differently though, it hasn't been pretty for ALF investors for the last 10 months.

    This company has many different small businesses under the Allied Farmers umbrella. It has been consistently profitable but hasn't been growing earnings at any rate to get excited about. Profit margins appear low as well.

    Not sure what their long term game plan is or where they want to position themselves? If they want to be niche player then perhaps they should specialise in something. Instead they appear to be a low growth, low margin generalist. Economies of scale appears to be important in the rural industry these days.
    SORRY Pick its every man for himself in this WORLD.. [8D]

  4. #24
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    Why bother with this company?

    It's a small player in the rural servicing industry and getting squeezed by industry consolidation by Wrightson.

    It bought a sawmilling operation (?????? try making sense of that!) which is bleeding cash 3 years down the tracks.

    That's why its share price has fallen ..and fallen.

  5. #25
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    quote:Originally posted by sniper

    Why bother with this company?

    It's a small player in the rural servicing industry and getting squeezed by industry consolidation by Wrightson.

    It bought a saw milling operation (?????? try making sense of that!) which is bleeding cash 3 years down the tracks.

    That's why its share price has fallen ..and fallen.
    SNIPE every company has some type of value ALF is NO different and pays good Div`s,, very diverse assets, the mill will get the flick soon as they can find a BUYer the rest good solid Rural estate something not being made again its a LONG term-er and NOT for short time PLAYERS.. [8D]

  6. #26
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    quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

    Well the farmers are consolidating after recent take over position taking and ALF has fallen to a low position so no better time to BUY,, but last year two former employees removed .5 million out of the till and did not tell the BOSS made him very angry so they thew them in jail but the money is still amiss but with this now behind we can look forward to a better year.. [8D]
    Like to agree with you, Bricks but don't like the odds on this compny performing. NPAT for 2006 looks like $2.35m so trading on a PER of 13.9 times - with earnings outlook deteriorating. And the timber mill continues to bleed. It was bought off a receiver and back to the receiver it looks like it will go. What is ALF's expertise in running a timber mill? So far so bad.

    SP was $2.35 when you first posted the above. Now it's $2.05. No hurry to buy this competitively badly placed company.


  7. #27
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    quote:Originally posted by sniper

    quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

    Well the farmers are consolidating after recent take over position taking and ALF has fallen to a low position so no better time to BUY,, but last year two former employees removed .5 million out of the till and did not tell the BOSS made him very angry so they thew them in jail but the money is still amiss but with this now behind we can look forward to a better year.. [8D]
    Like to agree with you, Bricks but don't like the odds on this company performing. NPAT for 2006 looks like $2.35m so trading on a PER of 13.9 times - with earnings outlook deteriorating. And the timber mill continues to bleed. It was bought off a receiver and back to the receiver it looks like it will go. What is ALF's expertise in running a timber mill? So far so bad.

    SP was $2.35 when you first posted the above. Now it's $2.05. No hurry to buy this competitively badly placed company.

    BRICKS did start at $2.35 just to feel the toe that's all and feel the real support is around $1.95 which could come up soon,, you are putting to much the timber mill they have quoted its pitfalls but a very small part of the big picture not many stocks in NZ this is a one to watch.. or tell me an alternate.. [8D]

  8. #28
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    How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?

  9. #29
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    quote:Originally posted by sniper


    How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?
    SNIPE read your annual REPORT.. [8D]

  10. #30
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    quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

    quote:Originally posted by sniper


    How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?
    SNIPE read your annual REPORT.. [8D]
    I know the number. I am calling your bluff - let's see if you do. You make out that you are so knowledgeable about ALF.

    BTW - it's not in the annual report.

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