ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

**blobbles** · 11-02-2013, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by Vaygor1

ALF's position now is orders-of-magnitude better than it was at it's lowest point post Hanover. I think the chances of ALF going completely down the gurgler were much much greater then than now.

Interesting to know if you still feel this way Vaygor. Someone is demanding money from them that they don't have. They have next to no assets meanwhile their business is running at a loss meaning they they really can't pay their bills. Punting on these guys now means you are assuming they can negotiate with the current debtors to hold off and then make a profit to start becoming viable. Neither looks particularly promising right now...

I hope they can get through this crisis, maybe a capital raising from their loyal supporters, but I don't like the look of it.

**Balance** · 11-02-2013, 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by blobbles

Interesting to know if you still feel this way Vaygor. Someone is demanding money from them that they don't have. They have next to no assets meanwhile their business is running at a loss meaning they they really can't pay their bills. Punting on these guys now means you are assuming they can negotiate with the current debtors to hold off and then make a profit to start becoming viable. Neither looks particularly promising right now...

I hope they can get through this crisis, maybe a capital raising from their loyal supporters, but I don't like the look of it.

Loyal supporters?

You mean like the directors who merged ALF with Hanover? A dog plus a dog = two dogs?

**minimoke** · 12-02-2013, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by Drongo

I told a Woman friend of mine to get out at 11c 3 or so years ago, she did, now she looks at that as experience, ahh 50K goes quite quickly if not looked at...

Ah, three or so years ago. Those were the days. Back when the numpty Hanover (and United) holders decided getting 70c for their dollar was a good deal since the $400m Hanover book would be well managed by ALF and they would get more back a bit later. Back when the board of ALF had their existing shareholders bent over a table with their pants around their ankles. Back when ALF had come off that dreadful slide from $3.20 to 30c and all was looking rosy. Those were the generous days when the numpties gifted Hotchin and Watson $20m and then went on to bleat about Paratia Drive. ALF was about to hit the NZX50 and Hanover holders were happy because there were way more shares around which automatically made then way more richer.

Math has never been a strong point of mine but anyone care to work out what the Hanover 70c is now worth? Is it around 2c?

**J R Ewing** · 12-02-2013, 12:10 PM

You are forgetting the 100 for 1 share consolidation. The true figure is around .02c

**Balance** · 12-02-2013, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by moosie_900

I was under the impression a dog + a dog = POLAR BEAR (which actively hunts humans)...

Or Alf + Hanover =Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson Laughing Their Heads off?

**Minerbarejet** · 12-02-2013, 01:14 PM

Ask Loughlin and Alloway about that one

**Balance** · 12-02-2013, 01:39 PM

Originally Posted by majorbarejet

Ask Loughlin and Alloway about that one

No need to?

They are also both laughing their heads off as ALF was goneburger but for the short term 'fix' from Hanover.

Probably allowed some of them to sell out in a big hurry before the whole thing came crashing down?

**Vaygor1** · 14-02-2013, 05:01 AM

Hi all.

Wow. Nice surprise I see logging in. We just might have a forum and some fun here.

Sorry I've been away for a while guys and girls. Been shifting countries so a real lack of internet and when available, lack of time to address this forum (which I have come to like very much).

I am sorry to disappoint by commenting now on what must have been on all your minds for a few days with the old 'Hey, Vaygor's gone all quiet ain't he?" thought.

I am writing ad-lib at the moment but I am encouraged to see such a response suddenly from the depths of the theatre so-to-speak. Up until now the silence has been deafening and this kind of event is exactly what this thread needs.

Anyway, please, give me a night to digest what is below. I haven't absorbed it yet but I trust this will be fun.

More very soon.

Vaygor1.

**minimoke** · 14-02-2013, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by Vaygor1

Anyway, please, give me a night to digest what is below. I haven't absorbed it yet but I trust this will be fun.

I admire your optimism - you still think ALF will be around tomorrow.

It looks like the market is also taking the CAMeL's silence as an optimistic sign. There are still bids above 2c. But consider ALF don't have $540k cash on hand. Their market cap is $2.4m with a NTA of -3.7c and the likelihood that $3.75m in assets will be written off.

As Chair Bluett’s got a $20 stake in the company – that goes to show how optimistic he is. I can only speculate that he anticipates making more out of his Director fees than anything else.

If I was that 200,000 seller I’d be taking the 2.1c bid. That way at least I’d be guaranteed a winter trip to the gold coast with a bit of duty free. That equals a whole lot more fun than being the last man standing. It won’t be long before those 200k shares won’t be worth enough to buy a glass of Pimms at the local Lawn Bowls club.