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  1. #811
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minerbarejet View Post
    All bodes well for the future. I will be looking forward to the share price being $21.34 at which point I will be breaking even.
    $21.34 is a hell of a mountain to climb.

    Before the recent surge upwards, one could have easily bought 1 million shares for approx NZ$17,000.
    Given recent events and the volumes being traded, you would be lucky to get a million shares now for under NZ$60k.
    To own the same percentage of ALF as a million shares gets you now would have cost millions before the Alloway Disaster.

    I very much sympathise with all those who lost their money on ALF, many lost their livelihoods.
    ALF's entire debt is now miles under what used to be its annual interest bill.

    I think ALF is out of the woods now and by-and-large I trust most of those on the board. Bluett's interests should ensure good governance.

    Not sure how long before it turns a profit. Anyone want to take a stab?
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 13-10-2013 at 04:41 PM.

  2. #812
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    If ALF survives all the lolly scramble of the last few years and concentrates on its basic business then I suppose a profit could be forthcoming. Not much left though with finance, retail, real estate all stuffed. Starting any of those again will require some serious planning but South Taranaki is a pretty resilient place with a good base of farming, oil and gas, Silver Fern Farms and Fonterra so a careful approach could work. Needs locals in charge not outsiders with clueless ideas.
    Think there might be a long wait to 21.34 though

  3. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minerbarejet View Post
    If ALF survives all the lolly scramble of the last few years and concentrates on its basic business then I suppose a profit could be forthcoming. Not much left though with finance, retail, real estate all stuffed. Starting any of those again will require some serious planning but South Taranaki is a pretty resilient place with a good base of farming, oil and gas, Silver Fern Farms and Fonterra so a careful approach could work. Needs locals in charge not outsiders with clueless ideas.
    Think there might be a long wait to 21.34 though
    You are spot on there MBJ. Allied farmers must stick to their knitting and avoid crazy ideas like buying sawmills and finance companies.

    You can see below that before Hurricane Alloway hit, ALF's adjusted market price peaked at around NZ$230/share. The question then... Is ALF 's current business potentially worth more than 10% of this peak given all the parts they have now sold off? I think the answer is easily a Yes... I would wager double that, and 10% of $230/share is NZ$23/share... equals profit.

    So nothing to lose really, you may as well hang in there. But you are right. It will likely be a long wait until you have enough for another Mk2 Sapphire! Would get there faster if they get rid of Mr Non-Discosure-McDouall though.

    ALF Adjusted Share Price.jpg
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 14-10-2013 at 05:31 AM. Reason: Deleted a doubled-up attachment.

  4. #814
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    Sorry, jumping into this thread very late - when you guys are mentioning $21.34 / $23 is that what you currently hold shares at/would need the share price to reach again before you profit?

    ta

  5. #815
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clip View Post
    Sorry, jumping into this thread very late - when you guys are mentioning $21.34 / $23 is that what you currently hold shares at/would need the share price to reach again before you profit?

    ta
    For MBJ, Yes.

    For me, definitely not. I'm looking good.

    Unlike many shareholders who lost a lot or everything on Allied Farmers, I never owned any shares until after Cyclone Alloway and the Hanover fiasco. In other words, instead of buying at over NZ$200/share, or in MBJ's case an average of NZ$21.34/share, I bought the overwhelming majority of my holding at well under NZ$0.019 per share. Not sure if MBJ is taking into account any dividends he received (back when they were paying dividends) in quoting his NZ$21.34 figure.
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 14-10-2013 at 11:33 AM. Reason: typo

  6. #816
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    Yep, BA( before alloway) I owned 55000 shares totalling 10 grand roughly- after going along for the ride to the bottom and the circus events that ensued I wound up with 550 shares worth their current price after a 100 for 1 consolidation. In order to recuperate the initial investment the holding would have to get to 21.34 each. Presumably you are aware that pigs and dogs do not fly and I would be well past my use by date if it ever happened. The Sapphire Mk 2 will be worth much more than that so I can recover a bit there. Not all the eggs in one basket.
    Go PEB

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    Cool thanks

  8. #818
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    Five days now until the end of ALF's financial year.
    I'm expecting positive equity and a profit.
    Won't find out until the end of August though... unless they report earlier than the previous few years.

    Anyone notice that Ron Brierley bought nearly 3% of ALF back in March?
    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ron-bri...take-bd-152940

    Disc: Holding

  9. #819
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Two announcements (related to each other today)

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/253451
    and
    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/253455

    More good news.

    If one tenth of AFRL's 64% holding in NZFL is worth $1M, that makes NZFL = $15.5M. ALF come out of the deal owning 57% of NZFL via AFRL, then that's $8.9 million for ALF currently valued at $0.00 in their books (as far as I can tell).
    Also means CAML $2.6M wiped off ALF's debt for $1M in bond extension.
    Speirs deal was done December last year but not reflected in the balance sheet yet so there's another $2M into the black.
    Bluett's rights (should he exercise them) already accounted for in the books.
    Speirs and Brierley now major shareholders, can't be a bad sign.

    It's looking better and better. Anyone hold a different view?
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 04-08-2014 at 04:50 PM.

  10. #820
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    … and continuing silence from the stalls.

    NBR article describing the recent announcement.
    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/allied-...ssue-bd-160294

    The article states that ALF's share price remained the same. Technically it didn't. It went from 4.5c pre announcement to 5.0c post announcement with 500,000 shares traded, and then dropped back next day to 4.5c on a low volume of only a few thousand shares.

    With about 100 million shares out there, I think ALF might be eligible in time for next year's Sharetrader stock picking competition.
    … or maybe not as this debt write-off event comes after 30-June balance date so probably won't be reflect the end-of-year result due out end of this month.

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