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  1. #831
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    Posted 1-Sept-2014
    Full year unaudited results out this morning.
    ...... (abridged) ........
    Yesterday's share price close 6.4 cents. So far today 7.4 cents. I think 10 cents within the next week or three and 20 cents by this time next year.
    ..... and 10 cents today ... and at good volumes too.

    I have done more research. I think my 20 cent prediction for 1 year from now is VERY conservative.

  2. #832
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    ..... and 10 cents today ... and at good volumes too.

    I have done more research. I think my 20 cent prediction for 1 year from now is VERY conservative.
    Give credit where credit is due. You stuck in there! good on you - I wouldn't have

  3. #833
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    Yes, good call Vaygor1.

  4. #834
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Minerbarejet View Post
    Yes, good call Vaygor1.
    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Give credit where credit is due. You stuck in there! good on you - I wouldn't have
    Thanks MM. Given your earlier comments on ALF, your feedback means a lot to me.
    On top of that I have always enjoyed your posts (on more than just this thread of course) and appreciate your repartee very much. Keep them coming.

    Thanks too MBJ. Looking forward to meeting you in November.

  5. #835
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Announcement yesterday that ALF's debt to CAML is fully satisfied.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/256264

    A rubber stamp exercise/announcement really, as this was all announced on the 4th August, but nice to see it has been ratified and that ALF no longer sits under the repayment-upon-demand cloud while this CAML debt existed.

    The debt to CAML as per the last annual report and subsequent announcements was $2.6M, and CAML agreed to a settlement of $2.0M from partial sale of their NZFL holding (via AFRL) for $1M plus the $1M available via the 3-year bond extension to 30 Sept 2017.

    This adds $600k to ALF's equity on the consolidated financials, or roughly 0.5 cents/share.

    Also, Chairman Garry Bluett exercised 1/3 of his rights on 30 Sept to take on board 1.16 million ALF shares. With the amount that Bluett paid (2.7 cents/share) plus the amount already set aside in ALF's last audited financials for this event, means the negative impact on ALF's equity for this transaction is very low (only about $30k in total by my calcs).

    In my earlier post I jumped the gun a bit in my 20 cents/share prediction in a year from now (entirely possible though, given the very conservative approach I took), which is at odds with what I actually calculated which was a share price of 25 cents/share in 3 years from now and 2 cents/share dividend payout over the same timeframe.

    Still, at 8 cents closing yesterday that would equate to a dividend yield of 8.3% per annum at today's price and a share price gain of 45% per annum compounding for the next 3 years.

    Of course, ALF could always retain any dividend and increase their equity instead. Fine by me.

    Disc: Holding.
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 10-10-2014 at 04:28 PM. Reason: Stipulated 3-year timeframe.

  6. #836
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    Announcement yesterday that ALF's debt to CAML is fully satisfied.

    https://www.nzx.com/companies/ALF/announcements/256264

    A rubber stamp exercise/announcement really, as this was all announced on the 4th August, but nice to see it has been ratified and that ALF no longer sits under the repayment-upon-demand cloud while this CAML debt existed.

    The debt to CAML as per the last annual report and subsequent announcements was $2.6M, and CAML agreed to a settlement of $2.0M from partial sale of their NZFL holding (via AFRL) for $1M plus the $1M available via the 3-year bond extension to 30 Sept 2017.

    This adds $600k to ALF's equity on the consolidated financials, or roughly 0.5 cents/share.

    Also, Chairman Garry Bluett exercised 1/3 of his rights on 30 Sept to take on board 1.16 million ALF shares. With the amount that Bluett paid (2.7 cents/share) plus the amount already set aside in ALF's last audited financials for this event, means the negative impact on ALF's equity for this transaction is very low (only about $30k in total by my calcs).

    In my earlier post I jumped the gun a bit in my 20 cents/share prediction in a year from now (entirely possible though, given the very conservative approach I took), which is at odds with what I actually calculated which was a share price of 25 cents/share in 3 years from now and 2 cents/share dividend payout over the same timeframe.

    Still, at 8 cents closing yesterday that would equate to a dividend yield of 8.3% per annum at today's price and a share price gain of 45% per annum compounding for the next 3 years.

    Of course, ALF could always retain any dividend and increase their equity instead. Fine by me.

    Disc: Holding.
    Snr. Vaygor1
    I think that ALF will not improving much in these years - farming in NZ weakening.

  7. #837
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by brucey09 View Post
    Snr. Vaygor1
    I think that ALF will not improving much in these years - farming in NZ weakening.
    Senor Brucey.
    I think you have had one burrito too many amigo.

  8. #838
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    ALF Annual Shareholders Meeting was held late November… about 10 days ago.
    This is the only news article I have found that has been published since...
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ure-paying-off

    Having freed themselves of the potential payment-to-the-crown-upon-demand 'noose', it appears they are poised for growth.

    Chairman Garry Bluett said the company was looking at raising more equity. Limited capital could be raised from shareholders without the need for a prospectus.

    It appears they will be seeking to do this in early 2015.

  9. #839
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post

    Chairman Garry Bluett said the company was looking at raising more equity. Limited capital could be raised from shareholders without the need for a prospectus.
    .
    I think it is fair to assume those shareholders won't be from within the dairy industry.

  10. #840
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    I think it is fair to assume those shareholders won't be from within the dairy industry.
    Hi MM.

    90%+ of ALF's business now is bobby calves. Not too much to do with dairy unless all the dairy farmers en masse decide to up their herds by a significant amount and hence retain more bobby's…

    The board stated at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in late November that they expected bobby calve numbers to increase by 17% this year, as they did last year.

    I am expecting good news in their half year result out late Feb 2015, and great news 6 months after that. Hopefully a nice acquisition in the midst of it.

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