KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[SPC]

Today's challenge.
Let's all purchase some more of our favourite shares at their underlying value, after all who wants to pay market prices.
Possible? Yes. Example?.....KFL - $1.27 for a basket of assets worth $1.50ish.

[alokdhir]

I honestly can't remember if I said $1.50 by this Christmas or last, if it's this one then I might have nailed it.

TBH U said SP $ 1.50 by Xmas this year ...its just NAV following your advise mate ...at least so far

[alokdhir]

Almost at 14% discount KFL SP to NAV with downtrending TD rates ...main reason at present could be some KFL selling / low demand due to BRM warrants being exercised ...63 Cents for appox 77 Cents post dilution seems more attractive to some ...18% ...if exercising free warrants ...

So far NZX50 YTD + 10.17% ....ASX 200 YTD 9.39% ....no ASX outperformance as people expected at start of year !!!

KFL NAV YTD + 12.75% after 3 dividends, BRM NAV YTD + 3% after 3 Dividends and expected post exercise dilution !!!

KFL is clearly outscoring BRM while both markets ie NZX and ASX being very similar

Now people's call !!!


PS : KFL is better placed maybe due to clearer rates path for NZ then Aus at present !!

[Toddy]

Almost at 14% discount KFL SP to NAV with downtrending TD rates ...main reason at present could be some KFL selling / low demand due to BRM warrants being exercised ...63 Cents for appox 77 Cents post dilution seems more attractive to some ...18% ...if exercising free warrants ...

So far NZX50 YTD + 10.17% ....ASX 200 YTD 9.39% ....no ASX outperformance as people expected at start of year !!!

KFL NAV YTD + 12.75% after 3 dividends, BRM NAV YTD + 3% after 3 Dividends and expected post exercise dilution !!!

KFL is clearly outscoring BRM while both markets ie NZX and ASX being very similar

Now people's call !!!


PS : KFL is better placed maybe due to clearer rates path for NZ then Aus at present !!

The BRM portfolio has some fantastic winners. The question is why do they hold so many obvious dog stocks in the portfolio when it is meant to be 'active'.

[Sideshow Bob]

NAV still pretty juicy at a fraction under $1.46 - https://www.nzx.com/announcements/440670

That is before IFT's run today, which is 16% of their portfolio. Would be now probably be close to $1.47.

[mike2020]

Sold ift today. Bought 14 months ago at 9.99 and had a $14 target short term as I saw it as undervalued. Put that money into kfl today. I think ift has done remarkably well since the last cr but all that money is still in the development stage I think? Anyway with kfl I can still collect a bit of any upside.

[ronaldson]

Sold ift today. Bought 14 months ago at 9.99 and had a $14 target short term as I saw it as undervalued. Put that money into kfl today. I think ift has done remarkably well since the last cr but all that money is still in the development stage I think? Anyway with kfl I can still collect a bit of any upside.

If you are investing for income KFL has a great ongoing PIE yield paid quarterly, with exposure to any incremental uplift in the NZX together with occasional warrant issues to add further non taxable value.

Better in that regard than any of the NZX listed property entities in my view, especially if you can acquire KFL at a significant discount to NAV at the time.

[mike2020]

If you are investing for income KFL has a great ongoing PIE yield paid quarterly, with exposure to any incremental uplift in the NZX together with occasional warrant issues to add further non taxable value.

Better in that regard than any of the NZX listed property entities in my view, especially if you can acquire KFL at a significant discount to NAV at the time.

Yes, those are Trust shares and I think KFL is a good fit with the DRP.

I do wonder about the next warrant issue, if they do it now it could prove to be very cheap after a couple more interest rate cuts, but would that be more dilutive and popular with holders who are fully invested? The last couple have been a waste of time really. I think if they did one today it would be well supported.

[winner69]

Z-score for KFL at extreme levels since I started monitoring 10 years ago ….experts would say relative to past performance KFL never been cheaper

Anyway for a laugh here’s updated chart. Only look at RED …others are just things like averages and standard deviations

[ronaldson]

Yes, those are Trust shares and I think KFL is a good fit with the DRP.

I do wonder about the next warrant issue, if they do it now it could prove to be very cheap after a couple more interest rate cuts, but would that be more dilutive and popular with holders who are fully invested? The last couple have been a waste of time really. I think if they did one today it would be well supported.

Here is an interesting Table from the Kingfish website.

Ticker Exercise Price Last Exercise Date Total % Exercised

KFLWH $1.26 26 July 2024 1.28%
KFLWG $1.90 18 November 2022 0.17%
KFLWF $1.51 12 March 2021 91.4%
KFLWE $1.25 12 July 2019 87%
KFLWD $1.21 5 May 2017 76%
KFLWC $1.18 6 November 2015 79%
KFLWB $0.95 3 September 2012 39%
KFLWA $1.00 31 March 2008 46%

After the first couple of warrant issues the frequency has trended towards occurring with exercise dates every 18 months/2 years, so perhaps we can hope for KFLWI to be announced in the first quarter of 2025?