KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[Ttops]

KJ
Perhaps but more likely the sellers don't analyse enough and are too easily swayed by their emotions. Who knows.
Only PPL and RYM are down over 1 month and only PPL over 3 months. The discount to dil NAV has been much more volatile than usual in the last two weeks swinging from 0 to 8% Perhaps the average is 4% and in times of uncertainty we get a greater discount. Thus better buying imo.

[KJ]

I don't disagree with your comments re analysis.However emotion is a big driver of the market which you ignore at your peril.
Its largest investment-RYM-is down about 12% in a couple of weeks and looking like it will go lower.Could be a bit of fear creeping in.

[Ttops]

Could be Rym. It does show signs and has the biggest component at 21% but could be a broker just saying sell. ASB Sec says 1 out of six has a strong sell on RYM Rest Hold or better. Rym could drop 40% and only cause KFL to drop 8.4% so it is a bit over the top. Its already done that! The warrants show more sense. I guess more traders trade warrants and are more attuned to the market than the average punter.

[manxman]

KFL has a buyback program running on the warrants. It was inactive while the SP was closing in on the diluted NTA but now that the gap is opening, I expect the warrants to be supported by buyback. Buying back at current levels represents good value if the market is going sideways.

[gisborne_gold]

I agree KFL and KFLWA are undervalued at today's prices.

At 1.49, KFL is trading at 8% below diluted NTA.

Based on diluted NTA and Black-Scholes, the warrants would be valued at around 63c. Yet KFLWA is trading at 52c, an 18% discount.

If you thought, say, that a 5% discount was about what you'd expect given recent trading history and the fact that Kingfish's holdings are so liquid and so transparent, you would still expect KFLWA to be up around 60c.

[Ttops]

The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.

[baxter]

Having just received a dividend from Kingfish I am left wondering which is the better deal Kingfish or Fisher Growth Fund which does not pay dividends. Likewise Barramundi and Aussie Growth fund. Iwish to restrain my income from breaching the top rung, but increase the value of my assets.Do recent tax changes have any effect on all four. I hold all four.

[gisborne_gold]

A while back I briefly considered the FDR tax question as it relates to the various listed and unlisted Fisher funds. I concluded that none were likely to be caught up in the FDR regime, assuming Fisher register them as PIEs, which I understand to be their intention.

As for your income question, perhaps only you can answer that one. You should perhaps pick funds based on overall return to you, taking account of your tax situation.

There seems to be quite a lot of overlap in the holdings between some of the various Fisher funds, and you should not assume that holding several funds necessarily gives you the portfolio diversification that you might otherwise expect.

quote:Originally posted by baxter

Having just received a dividend from Kingfish I am left wondering which is the better deal Kingfish or Fisher Growth Fund which does not pay dividends. Likewise Barramundi and Aussie Growth fund. Iwish to restrain my income from breaching the top rung, but increase the value of my assets.Do recent tax changes have any effect on all four. I hold all four.

[lakeside]

It's the difference between a unit trust and a listed company.

Unit trusts are good for small regular amounts and reflect the value but probably higher fees.

Share type thing will vary more according to supply & demand, the market.

Underlying shares similar, performance similar.

[KJ]

quote:Originally posted by Treetops

The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.

Not sure whether it is ignorance or caution.
When you look at KFL, 67% of its investments are tied up in RYM,MFT,MET,PPL,& RAK with approx PE's of 30,20,24,24,& 53 respectively.

Sure, forward PE is what is important so a rough stab:
RYM-20% profit growth so PE reduces to say 24-still quite high.
MFT-maybe similar so a f'ward PE of 16
MET-20% profit growth so F'ward PE of 19.
PPL-maybe no growth so f'ward PE of 24
RAK-hard to predict with US dollar but requires a couple of yrs of doubling NPAT.

To be honest I got out a little while back and would not look to get back in. NAV is back to where it was at beginning of January and the Warrants have only 9 mths to run.