KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.

Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.

What you are really saying warthog is that KFL end up paying over the odds when they buy because they are forced to push the price up .... and when they sell they end up getting less because they need to find some buyers

Seems like when they do pick a loser the loss the accentuated

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

quote:Originally posted by warthog

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.

Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.

What you are really saying warthog is that KFL end up paying over the odds when they buy because they are forced to push the price up .... and when they sell they end up getting less because they need to find some buyers

Seems like when they do pick a loser the loss the accentuated

Pretty much.

Of course one can liquidate a sizable position - or indeed, build one up - over a period of time but this is nowhere near as preferable as having decent liquidity.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

"You seem to be condemning KFL because it is a managed fund." (rmbbrave)
In addition it is very lightly traded - its average daily turnover is less than $14,000! Not a lot of room for trading there. (A good rule of thumb is never try and trade any stock where your stake is greater than 10% of the average daily turnover).

Are you sure about that?

From the following graph it looks like KFL is trading about 100,000 a day (past 3 months).

http://portfolio.findata.co.nz/Quote.aspx?e=NZX&s=KFL

TUR on the other hand looks like it trades about 20,000 a day (past 3 months).

http://portfolio.findata.co.nz/Quote.aspx?e=NZX&s=TUR

Unless you've bought about 2000 shares of TUR it would seem that you're breaking you're own rule of thumb.

[Phaedrus]

Aaaarrrrggghhhhhh!!!!! I missed the little x10 at the bottom of the Volume scale. You are quite right - 100,000/day not 10,000. That's $140,000/day not $14,000. Sorry about that - good on you for picking up my mistake. (It is still buttons though!)

Re liquidity "Rule of thumb" :-
(1) I was talking about trading. In NZ I am an investor - albeit an active one.
(2) This is a generally accepted ratio. It is not my rule.
(3) Even if it was, I reserve the right to break it!!!
(4) The idea is to avoid pushing the price around. It is possible to build up a bigger stake by purposely spreading your buying/selling over a period of time. You do not want to be the market-maker.

I run multiple indicators on any given stock, using these to incrementally step into or out of a position as each one is triggered. Such a system almost invariably spreads buying/selling activity out over several days/weeks or sometimes even longer. There are other perks too. It is not uncommon for an uptrend to falter and trigger some sell signals before strengthening again. In such cases I can console myself because I would have sold only part of my holding. It works well when buying too. You buy as each signal fires, but if the stock doesn't take off, you will not have tied up your full budgeted amount on what may well be a dud. In other words, you never get to be fully invested in (or fully out of) a stock unless/until all indicators have triggered.

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

RMBBRAVE, Nothing wrong with that if you can pick when it will happen. The trouble with that is you cant. Managed funds are for people that think it is also complicated that its beyond them.
I to had a win last week with PPP without having to pay someone to do it for me. RMBBRAVE i thought that you were above the managed funds level TUT TUT. macdunk

I buy and sell for many different reasons. I bought KFL for the following reasons:

1 The SP has been going up.

2 The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share excluding performance fees as at 5 July 2006 was $1.8261 (fully diluted $1.4245). ie at 1.25 the shares were cheap.

3 This article appeared in the herald on the 5th of July http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/sto...EC83027AF1010E
As "news drives the SP" I figured it would send the SP up a bit.

4 They hold some great companies
The five largest portfolio holdings at 5 July 2006 are approximately as follows:

Ryman Healthcare - 17.7%
Mainfreight - 14.8%
Pumpkin Patch - 10.0%
Metlifecare -10.4%
Freightways - 9.8%

5 Sharemarkets around the world are going up.

Well put RMG

Good to see some life in this thread at last. Have been busy with life and just got in.
Some quotes from wiser people:

"Read not to contradict and confute, nor to believe and take for granted, nor to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider."
There is something fundamentally wrong with Phaedrus and his TA. Perhaps MacDunk should have told us. He thinks we should all make up our own minds.

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." Really out of date that one RMG!

"There is no comfort in the truth. There are lies, damned lies and statistics." Thats better.

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence" mmm..

Let me illustrate some stats with my limited software, namely Direct Broking.
In the last six months KFL increased 41% NZSX midcap 28% and since IPO 46% NZSX Midcap 70% Clearly anyone buying more recently using TA and FA to help would still be holding KFL and KFLWA. Anyone holding from IPO has one KFLWA for each KFL share would have a cap gain of 76%. Not bad for Carmel.

After D_Pick had forewarned you all of the KFL no-brainer opportunity in Dec 2005 Rym increased 71% You all were wise enough to pick Rym right? Carmel did! PT liked it and MFT. Both in KFL. Surely KFL would be worth a look. Did any of you?
Those that held their KFL and KFLWA haven't done too badly really even if it looked bad for a while.
Since IPO .97 KFL and 0 KFLWA
On Friday 7th July they were 1.34 and .37 a total of 1.71 and that is a 76% capital gain ignoring divs and future sp divs. not what the Phaedrus graph shows.
They should be corrected to include KFLWA if you want to choose IPO starting date or the conclusions drawn from them are irrelevant surely. Why not start at D_Pick thread date?

Secondly we should really talk about the future now anyway. The past is based on a different combination of shares. Now we have DGL and RAK What is wrong with its

[shasta]

KFL up 5c to $1.37 today, & it's nice wee run continues!

This would have to be the narrowest gap between SP & NAV in a while, & perhaps the "premium" isn't too far off!

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

KFL up 5c to $1.37 today, & it's nice wee run continues!

This would have to be the narrowest gap between SP & NAV in a while, & perhaps the "premium" isn't too far off!

Shasta
Your prediction was correct. It hit 1.40 today and the warrants hit 40c so clearly investors feel it has more in it. I am suitably impressed with your predictive abilities. Care to make another while you are hot.[^] You could be responsible for the run today!

Treetops

[shasta]

Treetops, i doubt 20 + trades & over 150k volume was due to any post on Sharetrader from me or anyone else.

A few things may be spuring it on though, namely:

1. The quality of the shares they hold & doing well
2. The WAM money reducing debt, funding the share buyback & the special dividend
3. They have had plenty positive news of late
4. Technically its trending up & sellers are light
5. NZX capital return, & increased income from its portfolio, WAM special dividend etc
6. The strong performance of RAK & DGL post IPO

Really not too sure how high it will go before a retreat, but will lock in some profits as soon as my current sell price is hit.

Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount?

I am both an investor & trader, not a stock picker if you are looking for the next "hot stock" i cant help you!

[Ttops]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, i doubt 20 + trades & over 150k volume was due to any post on Sharetrader from me or anyone else.

A few things may be spuring it on though, namely:

1. The quality of the shares they hold & doing well
2. The WAM money reducing debt, funding the share buyback & the special dividend
3. They have had plenty positive news of late
4. Technically its trending up & sellers are light
5. NZX capital return, & increased income from its portfolio, WAM special dividend etc
6. The strong performance of RAK & DGL post IPO

Really not too sure how high it will go before a retreat, but will lock in some profits as soon as my current sell price is hit.

Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount?

I am both an investor & trader, not a stock picker if you are looking for the next "hot stock" i cant help you!

Just joking Shasta. I leave that to Carmel and Ron!
Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount? Yes. It was a no brainer when it was at a 15% discount but it now depends on how much you own and the discount to NAV closing. My last div was at 1.19 so I have increased 16% since then. In my case I'm still happy to leave it in but a big investor might be able to do better if it runs up to a premium and retraces. Its a cheap way to increase my shares by 2.5% About 37% of KFL shareholders do apparently.

Out of all your reasons, all which I agree with, I think that 4 is more important. Most Wam investors are just getting into action. Waited for the cheque to clear thought about it , sat on it and then started buying, saw it climbing and traders wanted to join in. I think some money is coming back from overseas and TEL is not a safe haven. I expect it to oscillate when the demand eases until the next surge depending on its component shares fortunes. It seems to go up in steps.

Why would you sell anyway on an uptrend, so thin selling saw the price rise rapidly? What is better out there for such a low risk? Who predicted the WAM take over? He who must not be named on this thread I mean Phaedrus, suggests the opposite. Why would you buy the thing! I expect profit taking again as obviously traders disagree with him but as long as people don't get bad news it will get support from mum's and dads who like me who like the low risk of a good basket of shares well being managed. If KFL traded that would lose KFL's tax status. It is not taxed on its capital gains on its key shares, something missed by some readers I'm sure.

Fisher Funds have more than 10% of RYM, MFT, MET, FRE, MHI Maybe they see another WAM in the pipeline. A pivotal stake in five key shares.
Go Carmel (and Ron) [^]

Treetops

[shasta]

The fisher group blocking stakes are one of the main reasons i will continue to hold KFL, especially in this climate where a falling NZD coincides with the cashed up aussie predators hovering over some of our best performing, well managed companies.

All of those companies mentioned appear "well managed" & performing well & are likely on the aussies radar.

Im watching & looking at buying into RBC purely for the play on Tenon, by one of the parties already with a blocking stake in RBC.

I like having an interest in at least one company where a play is in progress or likely to occur