NEW investor strategies

[duncan macgregor]

The year 2005 Is almost gone with sharetrader posters devoid of new Ideas and strategies. THATS HOW I READ IT GUYS. PHEADRUS shares his chart systems, SNOOPY gives us the fundamentals, you lot contribute very little to new systems or even Ideas. I was silly enough to introduce a time line system and share it with you. The result was negativity at its peak. Has anyone out there got any new investing Ideas, or is the forum a complete waste of time. The forum seems more preoccupied by shooting people down, rather than encourage new ideas. Lets hear your system, some of us might adopt a very small part of it, others might reject it but lets know what it is. macdunk

[shasta]

Ok, i'll front up with my system of selecting stocks, nothing earth shattering but here goes...

Having read alot about the investment styles used by Warren Buffett & Benjamin Graham its all a bit of common sense really, but i do look for certain criteria, as im both an investor and trader.

I look for the following companies, & on finding a suitable target it goes on my watchlist & is researched further until it hits a pre-determined price i have put on it, which is always at a discount to the current market value.

As an investor:
1. Increasing EPS & Dividends over last 5 yrs
2. Cheap/Realistic P/E to its peers
3. Strong Management with interests aligned to shareholders & little/no executive options (one reason i dont like FPA/FPH)
4. Not in a confirmed long term down trend

Basically Value & Growth orientated using stop losses & pre-determined exit points

As a trader, i look for:
1. Corporate Activity, Acquistions, T/O's, IPO entitlements, Rights, Options, short term plays etc

2. Temporary economic/cyclical reasons for low SP when fundamentals still ok

I also like to have one high risk punt on a low SP speculative company that i believe has a better than average chance of coming off.

One thing i have to add to my system is some form of timeline on exiting, as i always seems to sell too soon!

[duncan macgregor]

SHASTA, I buy with the fundamental analysis the way you do its the sell that gets most people on the wrong foot. I have a list of companies that i would invest in, and another list that i would never invest in. A good safe company goes from underpriced to over priced levels off, then drops and starts all over again. The cycle can be in a time frame of a number of years. When i finally understood that, it all became so easy to understand when to sell, and when to make a come back. A sell signal on a steep trending share is not the same as a sell signal on lesser trending share, It must be looked at in a different light. The steep trend got there to fast to stay and might go side ways for a period throwing you out to soon. That is why I have a time line in place at predetermined trend set at my stop loss level at the start. I watch the sp zig zag above my time line then if it falls below i sell without giving it a second thought. That way I see at a glance where the sp is going. Buying is the hard bit, selling is easy. Take a few old charts of some companies you sold to quick then try that system and perfect it before you do it. macdunk

[metro]

Do you think Duncan could learn about the "enter" button, the "tab" button and the spacebar.

Might make his postings easier to read eh

[shasta]

Thanks macdunk, i have sold some companies at the right time & others far to soon, but as i dont have a system as such i do get caught out.

Will look at some old charts & see if i can use them for the companies im looking into at the moment as i believe PGC, CMO & PMN all offer some value at present, but need further analysis.

[kittydashwood]

Hi there guys.

My system is pretty simple. I create a universe of 20 stocks I understand who pay dividends or will do in the future. I try to get a little money coming in ever month.
I use candlesticks. I'm in for 15 years I watched the market in the paper for most of 2000 and 2001 and started to buy in after Sept 2001.
I look for a handfull of breakout patterns and buy into companys with a record of increased earnings.
I take profits at 35% and again at 100% selling 1/4 of my investment each time.
I try to stay 95% invested although I do have some term deposits and hold MSD emerging country debt.

13.5% of my portfolio is in NZ 30% are in managed funds run by Bears Stern with an Emerging Economy & European focus. The remaining holdings are on the AMEX NYSE and NASDAQ in long holdings.

Although I try to stay long sometimes I run stop losses at key support levels. I have a small amount running with a swing trade brief, this trade is governed exclusively by Momentum so some trades last a day others last three months as with GROW.

Aim is to return 25% after tax so I aim for 35% gross return. Keep weekly records with a running NAV

Happy year of the dog!

[trendy]

I left the wild west NZX market midway through this year.I focus on the us markets with direct investments and emerging markets with mutual funds. I think the NZ dollar has to fall next year so would suggest you invest overseasas. A new trading firm that welcomes international accounts has opened here offering trades at $4.95 www.tradeking.com I'm planning to open an account with them.

Year ahead looks to be commodities and alertnative energy still. I'm focused on metals, solar, coal/gas to liquid technology.

disc:hold elsr, hw, ssl + mutual funds

[trendy]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

I left the wild west NZX market midway through this year.I focus on the us markets with direct investments and emerging markets with mutual funds. I think the NZ dollar has to fall next year so would suggest you invest overseas. A new trading firm that welcomes international accounts has opened here offering trades at $4.95 www.tradeking.com I'm planning to open an account with them.

Year ahead looks to be commodities and alernative energy still. I'm focused on metals, solar, coal/gas to liquid technology.

disc:hold elsr, hw, ssl + mutual funds

[yogi-in-oz]

Why south-seas scotty is looking for a new strategy !~!

Hi folks,

Really, to be fair, much of the mudslinging on these
forums is started by dunk, hisself .....

Well, finally the results are in and that loud-mouthed south-seas
scotchman and his scurvy-ridden supporters have been soundly
beaten again, in the 2005 competition ..... !~!

Maybe the following results will teach you to keep your big mouth
shut and stop tipping the bucket on ALL traders around these
forums, until you learn how to trade successfully, dunk:

21 27.7% YOGIINOZ ........ EPE_COE_GOG_ICN_MPO

55 0.81% duncan macgregor. ALF_NZO_PGW_POT_TPW

To his supporters, who also dumped on astrotrading methods, earlier
in that thread, it seems that some did not even have the courage to
enter the competition, for fear of being exposed ..... and those who
did were also soundly beaten, but we'll save you some embarrassment
by not posting the results.

-----

..... and just in case, you thought our astrotrading methods still
fall into the category of stargazing, check out this average over
the past 4 years of competition, as posted by the Kiwi organiser:

The P.O.D. on 22/12/2005

For all those trainspotters out there...

Here's some results of punters who have been in the competition
at least three years...

NAME____ 2002_2003_2004_2005_Average

yogi-in-oz____ 68%__101%_28%__ 66%

Revhead___ 58% 139% -19% 59%
hobbit___ 85% 4% 46% 45%
younga___ 16% 105% -9% 57% 42%
stolwyk___ 35% -28% 113% 40%
Gofish___ 114% -13% 4% 35%
The P.O.D. 69% -3% 18% 28%
OldRider 58% 22% -7% 24%
paul29___ -28% 102% -27% 46% 23%
sparrow__ -43% 91% -20% 59% 22%
Turtle___ 43% 6% 1% 17%
bull….___ 43% -27% 25% 14%
Dimebag__ -13% 47% -5% 10%

AVERAGE___-2%_77%___-1%_35%_33%

Interesting that Yogi with his astro methodology is at the top
(and all positive) while Dimebag with his fundementals is at
the bottom.

This all means nothing at all, except that unforseen random
events play more of a part than anyone here cares to admit.

ps - no offence dimebag.

The P.O.D.
Edited by - The P.O.D. on 22/12/2005 10:02:06 PM

=====

Many thanks to The P.O.D ... Happy New Year ...

=====

For the 2006 competitions, our picks are:

ASX: BKP - IMU - MOG - MOS - NHE

NZX: NZO - TTP - ABA - BCF - CML

NZX January Monthly: NZE - NZOOD - TTP - CDL - CML

======

So ya scotty landlubber, let's see your picks for 2006
or maybe your search for a NEW trading system should
include reading some astrotrading books, before you
decide on your 2006 picks ..... lol .....

happy new year to all

yogi

[duncan macgregor]

YOGI you star gazing wally. I take it back I am trying to be nice you puffed up moonie. Any how well done yogi i was one of the first to place my selections lets see you bullsh*t your way through this time. Happy new year to you and any friends you might have [thats if you have any]. Give me heaps next year if you happen to fluke one again. your old mate macdunk.