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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #81
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Zyreon,

    quote:if they raise interest rates, cliterus paribus, the NZDUSD should fall... hmmmm
    the threat of another hike in NZ has clouded the issue in the short term, although I firmly believe Fed will hike at least another 5 or 6 times vs RBNZ's possible single hike - "cliterus (sic) paribus" - very good, so you're probably right.

    In any event current EW structure is certainly quite bearish, until proven otherwise


    Dazza, OHCL = Open/High/Low/Close

    regards

    Xerof

  2. #82
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Taken Kiwi back at break-even. smell a rat here across the board

    Anything in the tea leaves Arco?

    Considering going long on a break of 7330 or short on a break of 7200

    Xerof

  3. #83
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
    7300-7324,so maybe they will hold.....Just maybe.

    I say that because I have a concern with the
    oscillator which is still on the positive side
    of zero.

    When in doubt - I stay out. There are better
    fish to fry (or Butterflies to fly).

    arco
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  4. #84
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    Went short at .790
    Looking at range, Target .720

    See how wee go

    Cheers
    Slam

  5. #85
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    May the force be with you

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  6. #86
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    Arco, do you use standard oscillator set at 28,14 or have you found a better combo?

  7. #87
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    My favourites are.....

    RSI - default

    QStick- 8 expo.

    MacD - default

    ------

    May I ask what signal are you using for entries?
    You seem to be fairly accurate with those.

    Regards
    arco



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  8. #88
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    Its the Xerof combo -

    I subscribe to TRL, whom I used for many years in my past roles, and is excellent IMO and experience. He is a confirmed TA, and certainly surfs the waves but don't know exactly what other indicators he uses.

    I use very simple EMA 10,20; macd - default and bollies - default on my own charts 2, 4 hours and daily, but am the first to admit to not being particularly savvy in this area at this stage and don't yet have a tested and successful combo

    I also have contacts in most of the local banks to gain a feel for where stops/bids/offers are. This can sometimes be misleading as the big players just hit the market and don't leave orders. I also still get their commentaries daily, as well as a lot of their Group research papers etc

    I have my own experiences to fall back on - gut feel - call it what you want - often just seeing the price action tells me intraday whats going to happen on the close here and into London. NYK is a stunning time zone for volatility, but we have to sleep sometime, so I don't get involved live there, but have found over the years that whatever London have done, NYK will do the opposite - about a 90% correlation on that.

    All of the above into the melting pot and bombs away.

    Finally, I follow hedge fund models/systems/signals and techniques as well


    Xerof

  9. #89
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Not waiting for a break of 7330, gone 1 unit long at .7290

    USD looking very offered across the board

    Xerof

  10. #90
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Yes, something spooked the herd.

    Good Luck with that long Xerof. I am remaining
    flat.

    Pleasantly pleased with the week overall.

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  11. #91
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    quote:Originally posted by arco

    Xerof

    I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
    7300-7324,so maybe they will hold.....Just maybe.

    I say that because I have a concern with the
    oscillator which is still on the positive side
    of zero.

    When in doubt - I stay out. There are better
    fish to fry (or Butterflies to fly).

    arco
    arco, is ur triple resistent , at the 24/25th days?!
    Oil - NZO
    REE - ARU
    Copper - EQN/OXR/TMR
    Iron- AGO/ADY/UMC
    Nickel-WSA
    PGM/Gold - PLA/VRE

  12. #92
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    speaking about indicators
    RSI - generally speaking going above the 20 mark = buy, going above 70/80 mark = sell

    ive checked it out.... yet IMO i tink this indicator is the least useful of all at least in my experiences.

    arco/xerof mind to share some previous dates where the RSI has been useful to reconfirm/confirm a sell/buy ?

    MACD - i prefer using this, really good indicator IMO, u guys say default, is that meaning 12 26 9?

    oscillator meaning PRICE OSCILLATOR? 28 and 14?


    Oil - NZO
    REE - ARU
    Copper - EQN/OXR/TMR
    Iron- AGO/ADY/UMC
    Nickel-WSA
    PGM/Gold - PLA/VRE

  13. #93
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    quote:Not waiting for a break of 7330, gone 1 unit long at .7290
    squared at 7329, after failure to break above 7350


  14. #94
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by slam

    Went short at .790
    Looking at range, Target .720

    See how wee go

    Cheers
    Slam
    Well was too soon with that one, but picked up some more to short at .7330, so back in black again.

    Cheers
    Slam

  15. #95
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    Dr Bollard seems intent on ensuring there's no ambiguity - this is aimed more at the interest rate markets, which are pricing in an easing as next move, but in terms of FX, those yield hungry cash 'n carry traders will be less worried about an imminent sell-off and might even be daring enough to take some more on

    quote:3 May 2005

    News Release

    Reserve Bank reinforces last week's statement

    Speech excerpt on monetary policy

    From an address by
    Dr Alan Bollard
    Governor
    Reserve Bank

    As part of a presentation to a Masterton District Council Business Community Breakfast Meeting

    Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard today reinforced his statement of 28 April 2005 that economic data suggests that underlying demand and inflation pressures remain strong and that, in this environment, further policy tightening cannot be ruled out.

    Dr Bollard was speaking to a Masterton District Council Business Community Breakfast Meeting.

    "Last week I announced that the Official Cash rate (OCR) would remain at 6.75 per cent," Dr Bollard said. "But I reiterated our concerns about the persistence of inflation pressures in the economy, which are severely limiting our inflation headroom."

    Dr Bollard said that over the coming weeks the Bank would be reviewing its forecasts in more detail, in particular to assess the strength of pipeline interest and exchange rate effects, household demand and ongoing labour market pressures.

    "This assessment will be used to confirm whether further policy tightening is warranted at the June 2005 Monetary Policy Statement. Certainly, the current outlook offers no scope for an easing of policy in the foreseeable future."

  16. #96
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The candles are showing an Harami (almost Cross)
    just below the resistance areas I mentioned on Friday.

    quote:I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
    7300-7324,so maybe they will hold
    I would ideally like to see the oscillator dip below the zero.

    arco



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  17. #97
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    I'm going to sell a couple of units at .7330 if seen on this run up. S/l above 7380

    currently 7290

    Xerof

    changed level up 20 pips - looks like there might be another short squeeze later today

  18. #98
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    Oscillator now moved negative zero...expect minor test
    to confirm change of polarity. Possible resistance remains
    as stated.

    No position currently.



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  19. #99
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    Noted thanks Arco

  20. #100
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    I wimped out of doing 2 units - changed my trade to short 1 unit at .7335, which is now live. S/L still .7380

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