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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #1201
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    The bullish uptrend on NZDUSD broke down middle of Nov, since this time it has been ranging sideways.

    The fundamentals long term for the NZDUSD remain bullish, however it is currently overbought, and is riding the coat-tails of the AUDUSD, and the improved outlook of the Australian economy.

    End of 2010 I see the NZD hitting 0.80 again, but in the the next two months we should revisit the 0.70 mark making pushing 0.69 again.

    I currently have a small short position on the NZDUSD from 0.7420. There are support levels at 0.73 and 0.71 on the way down, and will reduce the position by one third as we hit these levels. I have stops in place at 0.7450 and 0.7460 close half the position if I am wrong.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  2. #1202
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    quite well thought out article on the kiwi....

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...0620872&pnum=0

    Kiwi's wild ride not totally random

    Andrew Gawith is a director of Gareth Morgan Investments.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #1203
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    NZ's lower than expected 4Q CPI will likely add to the view Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep Official Cash Rate on hold until mid-year.

    Stats NZ says 4Q CPI down 0.2% on quarter, lower than flat result picked by economists. RBNZ had tipped 4Q CPI to fall 0.2%.

    Annual inflation accelerates to 2.0% vs annual inflation rate of 1.7% in 3Q, still well within RBNZ's 1%-3% target band and lower than 2.1% expected by market.

    Non-tradables component, which strips out imported prices, +0.1% vs +1.0% in 4Q while tradables component fell 0.5% vs +1.6% in previous quarter.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  4. #1204
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    So we are expecting some short-term weakness in the NZD over the next few weeks or so?
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  5. #1205
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

    It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  6. #1206
    Member Pumice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silverlight View Post
    Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

    It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.
    NZD Hit hard by 4Q employment data: 6.5% to 7.3% Unemployment rate Vs an expected 6.8%

    Good time to short? Fundamentals might be catching up....

  7. #1207
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

    However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

    Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  8. #1208
    Member Pumice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silverlight View Post
    I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

    However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

    Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.
    At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."

  9. #1209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pumice View Post
    At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."
    TA.. showing NZ$/US$ at a critical point...
    Bouncing on its 68.5c support line which is also the old Fib 61.8% retracement line.

    80c by October 2010 would seem a big ask if the 68.5 support breaks


    Last edited by Hoop; 07-02-2010 at 11:53 PM. Reason: I've seem to have lost the abilty to produce big incredible charts..any help appreciated

  10. #1210
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    pretty strong move up on the kiwi since 1 AM last night shown here in hourly candles. Although I have a lot of study to do (but no more day job - yay) I am going to post several times in this thread today showing different thoughts and perspectives. It would be good to encourage others to do the same... All thoughts crazy and otherwise welcome
    Last edited by peat; 07-04-2010 at 07:26 AM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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