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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #1
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Default Nzd.usd


    One of my systems has triggered a
    possible long on the Nzd.Usd.
    I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
    however there is often a decent day trade
    available from this signal.

    Please note. My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The system I have detailed above could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow this system be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk and that I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred.





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  2. #2
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    Update.
    Nice rise already on this one so far since inception 17/3
    and has been up as high as .6612 from open @ .6507

    In these situations IMO its always good to take 100 points
    profit on 50% of the position and let the balance ride
    with a trailing stop.




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  3. #3
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    2 more signals have triggered long overnight
    with close being at .6606 after high of .6646
    (Trade opened @ .6507)







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  4. #4
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    Signals can sometimes be wrong, so as I have said before,
    IMO its sensible to take 100 pips profit on 50% of the
    position and let the balance ride with a trailing stop.

    Stop was hit yesterday on the balance (at entry price),
    but at least the 100 pips taken earlier is safely in
    the bag.

    First day signal has now triggerd short.
    I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
    however there is often a decent day trade
    available from this signal.












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  5. #5
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    3 signals now giving long

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  6. #6
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    Long stopped 2/4 for a loss of 92 pips.





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  7. #7
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    Looks like NZD might be about to embark on down leg 5 of the 'c' wave corrective pattern.
    Possible support area shown on chart.





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  8. #8
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    Up to close there was a gain of 269 pips in
    2 days (maximum available 285 pips).

    The current candle is just above the
    support area noted on the recent
    chart posted, and so this position
    needs to be monitored carefully in
    order to maximise profits.





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  9. #9
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    There is now Tweezer Bottom on the support
    area mentioned and therfore we can
    expect some uplift at least shorterm.



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  10. #10
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    Short term uplift is over. Look for the fall
    to continue now.
    Perhaps around May 24-28 may give a clue to the next move.








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  11. #11
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    My Reuters EOD chart prints a Bullish Engulfing (bouncing off the 7324 Octave which appears to have possible resistance). Oanda chart looks currently like an Evening Star. Both bearish signs to be aware of.




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  12. #12
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    hmm i can get put options for up to 6 months... but then even out of the money they cost like at least 2 cent/unit e.g. 73 cents = 3.5cent

    i think with terms like that you'd be better off just going short with a wide stop

  13. #13
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Reversal is pretty close IMO

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    why you think that?

  15. #15
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    I'm feeling psychic

    Scaling in a few shorts circa 7385-7446,
    with a very tight stop.

    Trying to pick tops is a high risk strategy
    - but not quite as bad as picking bottoms.

    Alternative strategy for wimps.
    Trail a limit order using CBL3.

















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  16. #16
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    using your intuition?

    fair enough, i think if RBNZ doesn't do anything then it could drop due to present discounting of presumed .25 increase in OCR.

    though using that reasoning would be gambling on RBNZ action.

  17. #17
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    zyreon

    It was actually more TA than intuition
    - a combination of EW, Fib, etc, etc.

    I rarely consider the fundimentals,
    - its all in the charts.

    Watch out for butterflies.....





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  18. #18
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    Current action look like printing an Evening Star derivative (Bearish Engulf) pattern, and my scaled in shorts circa 7385 are not looking too shabby.

    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due. At some point it has to happen.




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    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  20. #20
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    We may be seeing an extended 5th wave, target circa 76/77 before we head lower, although the bearish divergence on the monthly RSI serves notice that a turn could happen at any moment. I will be looking to sell around those levels, which I think should be seen later this month. This should also coincide with another topping out for the Euro circa 1.3660 but thats another story.

    Remember that a lot (but not all) of the NZD strength is actually USD weakness. The balance of strength, which can be seen as outperformance on other cross rates, relates to carry-trade/high yielder demand from the hedge fund/
    CTA/real-money types.

    When these guys head for the exits, we'll see the usual carnage.....this may be triggered by a sharp increase in risk aversion, which may in turn be triggered by either a share market collapse and/or sharp sell-off in Treasuries. (or perhaps the perfect storm - both at once![:0][:0])

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