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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #161
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    I think this EW count is correct, so we may
    see a turn to complete leg 5 very shortly.



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  2. #162
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The action has dropped as far as it is
    allowed to go according to Elliott Wave rules.

    i.e. Wave 4 should not penitrate the end of Wave 1.
    (Pink line previous chart), unless plot is a diagonal.

    However, very slight spike overlaps
    are allowed in certain instruments such as Fx.

    So, we really need to see a turn around here,
    otherwise the count shown on the chart is voided.

    Still long at 7080 +19.

    arco





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  3. #163
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    I took out a short at 7122 last nite.... - just a little contract - have very wide s/l and t/p - prepared to ride this for a while and be patient....

    arco where are you on this pair now?

  4. #164
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Peat

    IMO the EW 4 possibly completed on 26th with
    an almost perfect AB=CD and therefore I deceided
    to close out my long at 7140 + (+55) and remain
    on the sidelines.

    No present position - awaiting Flag break.
    Appears to be a good long term short IMO,
    (as suggested way back when at 7446).

    arco







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  5. #165
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by arco


    (as suggested way back when at 7446).

    arco
    yes I've missed far too many of your valuable recommendations.
    But I am slowly expanding my sphere of operations and gingerly increasing my exposure/risk levels etc....

    Forex will be around for a while, as long as I dont bust my a/c

  6. #166
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    quote:N.Z. Dollar May See `Significant' Demand on Taxes, Westpac Says

    May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar may attract ``significant'' demand in the next two years on repatriation by fund managers before proposed tax changes that favor domestic over overseas share investments, Westpac Banking Corp. said.

    Finance Minister Michael Cullen in the May 19 budget proposed scrapping a so-called grey-list of seven countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Australia, where New Zealanders can invest in stocks without paying tax on any capital gains. He also proposed abolishing capital gains tax on domestic equity investment, with the changes slated for 2007.

    ``Clearly, the proposed changes would provide investors with an incentive to repatriate some or all of their grey-list investment ahead of the legislation,'' Wellington-based Johnathan Bayley, a senior currency strategist at Westpac, wrote in a note to clients, which he confirmed by telephone. ``There's general agreement that there is potential for a substantial shift in investor allocation.''

    New Zealanders' investments in overseas equities total NZ$24.5 billion ($17.4 billion) said Bayley, citing balance of payments figures, with about 80 percent invested in the seven grey-list countries, also including Canada, Norway, Germany and Japan.

    Bayley said by assuming 25 percent of equity investments in the seven countries are repatriated to avoid the capital gains tax, it would bring about NZ$5 billion of funds back to New Zealand. This would result in around $NZ3.4 billion of extra demand for the currency because some funds hedge against appreciation of the New Zealand dollar to protect the value of their overseas equities, he said.

    `Significant Flow'

    ``In terms of underlying currency supply and demand this is a fairly significant flow,'' Bayley said.

    New Zealand's deficit in its current account, which measures flows of goods, services and investments, widened to a record NZ$9.39 billion in 2004.

    The New Zealand dollar has gained 12 percent in the past year to buy 71.14 U.S. cents as of 2:40 p.m. in Wellington. The currency will drop to 64 cents by year-end, Westpac predicts.

    Any reallocation of funds back into New Zealand won't be made until investors are made aware of the details of the tax changes and it is passed into law, Bayley said.
    I just came across this in regards to proposed changes in the new budget and thought it could be relevant to this thread.

    Does anyone think this has the potential to significantly impact the anticipated drop in the NZ Dollar in the coming year or two?

  7. #167
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Hard to say, but its not the only factor in the equation

    quote: Uridashi redemptions total NZD6.7b in 2006, NZD4.6b in 2007
    Eurokiwi redemptions total NZD2.6b in 2006, NZD3.4b in 2007
    If these don't get rolled over or replaced by continued new issuance, there's enough supply to counter any one-off inflows such as has been suggested in the article.

    And who knows now what the mood of the markets will be at that stage?

    Take it as it plays out at the time


    Xerof

  8. #168
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    short term long opportunity?

    June 9th RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

    maybe Dr Bollard will make good on his will-not-rule-out-further-rate-rises rhetoric

    http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2005/1691405.html

  9. #169
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    I think the interpretation taken by the markets of his "outside MPS comments" was that he didn't want the rate curve anticipating future easings too early, and thereby undermining the current state of monetary policy.

    My pick is he won't tighten, but will retain same sort of rhetoric, especially if we see Kiwi in decline in the meantime.

    But recent data has a softer tinge to it, and recent USD strength has capped the Kiwi anyway. Haven't had a look at TWI level, but it must still be very high, as Kiwi so far has held in rather well.

    Hearing from various sources and contacts, that "decisions" to unwind the infamous carry trades have already been taken, and nothing will change that process. Watch the sinking lid - sell all rallies - locate your grandmother and prepare her for sale too[8D][8D] IMHO of course

    Xerof

  10. #170
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The mass fundamental info will only confuse,
    so the information you require is all in the chart.

    MT/LT short IMVHO.

    Whats Max got to say Xerof?







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