Nzd.usd

[roddy]

Hi Peat,
i havent posted for awhile, but have been trading my short got filled on this one .4965 this morning
cheers
roddy

[peat]

hey roddy! glad to hear you're still around and trading.... I've got no kiwi trades open at the moment. riding my USDCAD up last night.

[roddy]

Thanks Peat

i have been trading 50 day breakout strategy since Nov and a bit of an oversight on my part,but i should of been long CAD at 1.2764,just hadnt updated my EOD from infoscan from Friday close

[Dr_Who]

Short NZD at .5050?

[arco]

Short NZD at .5050?

What is the reasoning for this trade?

Where is the target?

[Dr_Who]

What is the reasoning for this trade?

Where is the target?

I have not made the trade yet, just asking a ques.

RB is due to announce soon. Was expecting the OCR to go lower.

[Rif-Raf]

I have not made the trade yet, just asking a ques.

RB is due to announce soon. Was expecting the OCR to go lower.

Announcement due next Thursday 12 March. Will they make another cut?

[patsy]

Announcement due next Thursday 12 March. Will they make another cut?

Bollard has a history of supporting and advocating for a low NZD. His track record (e.g., his trip to Japan a couple of years ago to let the Japanese know that he'd do anything to collapse the NZD... his intervention in July 2007 to lower the NZD.... his recent 150 point cut the day after the Fonterra pay-out to ensure that farmers get more NZD.... his recent speech in which he said that the best way to insulate the NZ economy was a low NZD) points to his single focus on debasing the currency at any cost.

Will he cut?? Most likely. However, the RB of Australia decision on Tuesday not to cut must have fallen like a stone in his stomach. ANZ is forecasting NZD/AUD of 0.70 in weeks to come so the outlook is that he'll cut.

[roddy]

Hi Patsy,
It will be an interesting scenario if RBNZ cuts and we could end up with lower ocr than AUD.I trade solely price and i am still short on the kiwi,and have been trading a simple trend following system which seems to be working okay!

[patsy]

Hi Patsy,
It will be an interesting scenario if RBNZ cuts and we could end up with lower ocr than AUD.I trade solely price and i am still short on the kiwi,and have been trading a simple trend following system which seems to be working okay!

I think that the RB of Australia decision not to cut curtailed the rate cut size that Bollard would have liked (that's what I was referring to in my previous post). However, I believe that he will go ahead anyway, and this will push interest rates lower than those in Oz.... with the consequent further debasing of the NZD as he wants. A further drop of 10% of NZD versus AUD is what is being currently forecast by Ozzie banks. He believes that a sense of prosperity can be achieved by low interest rates, just as Greenspan believed after 9/11 leading to a massive credit bubble and the US debacle we now see. With the current RBNZ policies we have now, we are stuffed as a country.