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25-06-2009, 07:07 PM
#1091
Thank's for the kind words gentleman.
Where to from here?
There is a strong correlation at the moment between equities and currency markets, there seems to be a lot of technical opinion suggesting a top is in place in equities and therefore by default i am looking at bullish extension towards sp 1000 and the final leg down in USD.
kiwi is always a good risk indicator , still long with a target around 0.68 - 0.69.
However the market is at a critical juncture, and it is very dangerous having opinions so i am watching closely for market leads and am positioned for a break either way.
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26-06-2009, 10:55 AM
#1092
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26-06-2009, 03:03 PM
#1093
Member
I'm still short Kiwi in anticipation of the equities correction continuing. 'Tis a bit of a gamble though with USD possibly looking at another leg down.
I anticipate a drop in the S&P500 tonight to end the week below 900.
If all the stars line up, I think we'll see a sustained down-trend in Kiwi, possibly to 55c over the coming weeks.
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28-06-2009, 09:57 AM
#1094
Originally Posted by dumbass
this is another that is showing bullish slant against USD
closed out short for 200 + and reversed to long 62 80 for target 67
closed the long trade for +180 pips,
back again at the strong resistance at 64 80 , triangle set up which im expecting will break to the upside but a good place to take profits.
Last edited by dumbass; 29-06-2009 at 06:25 PM.
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28-06-2009, 06:45 PM
#1095
Member
Been watching this thread with some interest. Purcahsed some USD a few weeks back around 62. Went on what i thought at the time and didnt look at the charts. Ive had a few opportunities to exit but have stuck with it. Now Im trying to understand all these charts and indicators to try and help understand if i should be staying in or trying to exit
Dumbass - why do you expect to break on the upside
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28-06-2009, 07:50 PM
#1096
hi adam , the kiwi is in the final stages of completing its rally against the US dollar , the triangle pattern on the chart which in technical analysis terms is classified as a ascending triangle which if it has been preceded by an uptrend is bullish.
i use a type of analysis called elliot wave and often these triangles are in the fourth wave preceding a final fifth wave to a new top before price reverses.
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29-06-2009, 09:11 PM
#1097
Member
Thanks, will watch with interest on how it pans out and hope for a big trend down after that 5th. Always find it hard working out where to start trends, always seems obvious when someone posts though. Guess it all just comes down to homework and watching
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30-06-2009, 12:30 PM
#1098
Big trends are the thing to ride Adam , if you can identify them early enough.
heres where i reckon kiwi may reverse.
Very interesting that US dollar appears to be breaking to the downside which probably hints at a new high for equities.
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03-07-2009, 10:29 AM
#1099
Member
It has begun......
Roll on 55 c.
What do you reckon dumbass?
Convincing break to the downside, or too soon to tell? Appreciate your opinion.
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04-07-2009, 08:53 AM
#1100
Interesting article here by Brian Gaynor on the most speculative currency in the world - the NZD.
Discusses the adverse effects on NZ exporters but doesn't offer any solutions.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...0582422&pnum=0
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