Nzd.usd

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes, that Gartley looks interesting. Daily Ichi chart is way off breaking, but the H4 is close.

Will be watching for a break in either direction, and see what transpires.

[Steve]

A nice juicy spike upwards past 7100 - start of a push up to 7425?

[Dr_Who]

I am keeping a close eye on the NZD. One of these days when it starts to turn big time, I will short the living daylights out of it and hold the short position for a period of time.

[peat]

Dr Who
There has been a story going round just recently of someone else who 'took a massive punt' on a similar vein , and apparently there wasnt a happy ending.

Just a gentle reminder that one shouldnt ever dismiss prudent money management techniques with all speculations. know your acceptable losses - never gambol the farm.

We all know the kiwi is an unpredictable litte bird that seems to defy the odds a lot.

this rally in all the markets even if it is a bear rally seems to have a lot of steam and not only could go a fair way but esp in currencies could have a big spike at the end

[Xerof]

Doctor

might have to wait a while - trending still - mid 75's might see some resistance

Hi Peat, how you goin'

[arco]

Potential target zone in the grey box.

Thick Red line is plotted at 7427 = possible Kumo resistance, with an old UT line that will be tested (white box area).

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the caution guys, much appreciated.

I am not talking about going short now. I may have to wait a year or two, but that kiwi cant stay up forever. When the day comes (and it will come), I will be there to short it all the way.

[bung5]

Thanks for the caution guys, much appreciated.

I am not talking about going short now. I may have to wait a year or two, but that kiwi cant stay up forever. When the day comes (and it will come), I will be there to short it all the way.

likewise, low leverage but long trade will do the job nicely

[arco]

NZD/USD could slide down elevator after making climb up stairs, says TD Securities economist Annette Beacher. Says NZD supported by economic fundamentals, yield appetite, "risk-on" hot money but that as 2010 unfolds, bond supply will exceed demand and profit-taking will emerge as foreign demand for bonds underpinning NZD rise. "Our year-end 2010 forecast of US$0.60 reflects these concerns." Pair last 0.7209. Says upbeat data flow raising expectations RBNZ will no longer need extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy; recent explosion of appetite for NZ bonds fuelled by improved liquidity from outsized issuance program; global cash sloshing around seeking non-USD assets. Beacher says 2010 will be different story as RBNZ moves toward neutral, curtailing nascent consumption, housing recovery; bond issuance may outstrip demand with government to issue NZ$11.4 billion in 2010-11 vs NZ$8.9 billion in 2009-10; NZ$14.5 billion in 2011-12.

NZD/USD vulnerable to USD short-covering ahead of G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later this week, says RBC Capital Markets strategist Sue Trinh. Adds many short dollar positions stretched, while S&P overnight underwent "a key day reversal." "If that gets follow though tonight, risk proxies (such as NZD) will bear the brunt of equity market weakness." Trinh says rumors of RBNZ intervention likely mistaken for routine central bank transactions. Adds NZD/USD risks selling down to 0.7060. Pair last at 0.7208.

[arco]

Potential target zone in the grey box.

Thick Red line is plotted at 7427 = possible Kumo resistance, with an old UT line that will be tested (white box area).

Heres the PA now playing in the same white box area. (I have re-adjusted the thin red line off the weekly chart)