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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #166
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    quote:N.Z. Dollar May See `Significant' Demand on Taxes, Westpac Says

    May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar may attract ``significant'' demand in the next two years on repatriation by fund managers before proposed tax changes that favor domestic over overseas share investments, Westpac Banking Corp. said.

    Finance Minister Michael Cullen in the May 19 budget proposed scrapping a so-called grey-list of seven countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Australia, where New Zealanders can invest in stocks without paying tax on any capital gains. He also proposed abolishing capital gains tax on domestic equity investment, with the changes slated for 2007.

    ``Clearly, the proposed changes would provide investors with an incentive to repatriate some or all of their grey-list investment ahead of the legislation,'' Wellington-based Johnathan Bayley, a senior currency strategist at Westpac, wrote in a note to clients, which he confirmed by telephone. ``There's general agreement that there is potential for a substantial shift in investor allocation.''

    New Zealanders' investments in overseas equities total NZ$24.5 billion ($17.4 billion) said Bayley, citing balance of payments figures, with about 80 percent invested in the seven grey-list countries, also including Canada, Norway, Germany and Japan.

    Bayley said by assuming 25 percent of equity investments in the seven countries are repatriated to avoid the capital gains tax, it would bring about NZ$5 billion of funds back to New Zealand. This would result in around $NZ3.4 billion of extra demand for the currency because some funds hedge against appreciation of the New Zealand dollar to protect the value of their overseas equities, he said.

    `Significant Flow'

    ``In terms of underlying currency supply and demand this is a fairly significant flow,'' Bayley said.

    New Zealand's deficit in its current account, which measures flows of goods, services and investments, widened to a record NZ$9.39 billion in 2004.

    The New Zealand dollar has gained 12 percent in the past year to buy 71.14 U.S. cents as of 2:40 p.m. in Wellington. The currency will drop to 64 cents by year-end, Westpac predicts.

    Any reallocation of funds back into New Zealand won't be made until investors are made aware of the details of the tax changes and it is passed into law, Bayley said.
    I just came across this in regards to proposed changes in the new budget and thought it could be relevant to this thread.

    Does anyone think this has the potential to significantly impact the anticipated drop in the NZ Dollar in the coming year or two?

  2. #167
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Hard to say, but its not the only factor in the equation

    quote: Uridashi redemptions total NZD6.7b in 2006, NZD4.6b in 2007
    Eurokiwi redemptions total NZD2.6b in 2006, NZD3.4b in 2007
    If these don't get rolled over or replaced by continued new issuance, there's enough supply to counter any one-off inflows such as has been suggested in the article.

    And who knows now what the mood of the markets will be at that stage?

    Take it as it plays out at the time


    Xerof

  3. #168
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    short term long opportunity?

    June 9th RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

    maybe Dr Bollard will make good on his will-not-rule-out-further-rate-rises rhetoric

    http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2005/1691405.html

  4. #169
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    I think the interpretation taken by the markets of his "outside MPS comments" was that he didn't want the rate curve anticipating future easings too early, and thereby undermining the current state of monetary policy.

    My pick is he won't tighten, but will retain same sort of rhetoric, especially if we see Kiwi in decline in the meantime.

    But recent data has a softer tinge to it, and recent USD strength has capped the Kiwi anyway. Haven't had a look at TWI level, but it must still be very high, as Kiwi so far has held in rather well.

    Hearing from various sources and contacts, that "decisions" to unwind the infamous carry trades have already been taken, and nothing will change that process. Watch the sinking lid - sell all rallies - locate your grandmother and prepare her for sale too[8D][8D] IMHO of course

    Xerof

  5. #170
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    The mass fundamental info will only confuse,
    so the information you require is all in the chart.

    MT/LT short IMVHO.

    Whats Max got to say Xerof?







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  6. #171
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Med term:

    quote:APRIL 29th,.7280 -- Kiwi still favours a much greater corrective decline and sell-off to .6800 over coming weeks,probably enroute the .6400 level
    Short term: sell at 7075/00, stop at 7125, for 7000


  7. #172
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    sitting right on 200 SMA line here at 7030

    will it, won't it [^][^]

    seems pressure coming through AUD.NZD cross selling for the moment

    I guess you have to sell the break if not already short - thats what the momentum model accounts will do....NYK session might see the fireworks

    Xerof

    D: short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571

    GO the comdols !!

  8. #173
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    6999

  9. #174
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell

  10. #175
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    yeh i still have one short
    but bought back at 7014 and 6968

    strange thing to say but in this sort of market taking profits is dangerous tho....

  11. #176
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    All things being equal (which they never are)
    I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
    Anyone else get close to that?
    Cheers
    Slam

  12. #177
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    quote:Originally posted by slam

    All things being equal (which they never are)
    I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
    Anyone else get close to that?
    Cheers
    Slam
    I think this one has already gone,[:I]
    Change that too 6998

  13. #178
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    H&S formation neckline broken on daily
    - thats a bearish sign.

    Neckline may have to be tested, but once polarity
    change is confirmed..... watch out below.







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  14. #179
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    it's times like these I'm glad i'm long a put option

  15. #180
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    quote:1/6 - short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571
    quote:later on 1/6 - Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell
    Nice bounces indeed so far - possibly slightly better than modest - any views out there?

    I reckon 7080/90 for Kiwi, but AUD looks fairly bid still - 7650?

    Where are we on the SPIDER INDEX Arco?

    Xerof


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