Nzd.usd

[dumbass]

Target hit on spike up 200+ , probably hold off from here and see what happens.

[biology12]

hey DA,

whats the plans for the market today?thoughts?

[dumbass]

hi biology , absolutely stuck in a range from 79 to 80 . play the range long or short untill the range breaks.

i wouldnt be too greedy just hunt for 60 - 70 pips until the range breaks no clear direction at the moment.

[Pumice]

Range break finally.
More rubish in Europe

[dumbass]

im going to live dangerously, long 77.81 stop 77.65

[Pumice]

Thats crazy talk.
Has your SL hit yet?

I was going to short on the break but wasnt watching the market close enough so missed it. Was looking like a great setup too, it had a few attempts at .80 but just couldnt do it.

[dumbass]

It was crazy , but an opportunity with a very low risk was too good to pass. -20
Im still expecting a bounce in the dow tonight which i thought would materialise in risk on ,
Still bearish on the kiwi though.

[Pumice]

Well it did bounce back a bit DA, only to fall away again.

Can I ask how you manage to be so disciplined with your trades. I have been trading for a few years now, but this is (like many) my one remaining weakness.
Fortunately it hasn’t cost me a margin call as I risk very little. Any tips?

[dumbass]

great question, i think trading tends to expose any flaws in your character, it will find it and play you like a fiddle. My problem for many years was fighting my impulsive nature i tended to enter trades too early , only to watch my stops being hit and then heading in the anticipated direction. i would then jump in too late and get stopped out again.
elliot wave theory helped me determine risk, ideally you will enter very close to your calculated top and therefore have a very tight stop. most of my trades will risk only 30 - 50 pips which allows you the luxury of large positions.
the next best way to enter is on a retracement of the first wave down , this retracement is typically 50 - 61.8 % of the first wave and can be up to 100 % retracement ( double top ) so plenty of time to enter if you miss the top.
i think another important issue is not to listen to all the talking heads, this just brings doubt in to your trading, be true to yourself. I ve never really struggled with being wrong as long as it was my trade.
i think another key point is to wait for the right trade , there are always good set ups in the market and there is no need to enter a trade where risk is not correct or even that you cant work out a good exit,never mind a good entry.

im sure others will add to this list.

[dumbass]

i will be looking to get short again on nzd usd / aud usd next week.

i play 2 positions on the pair i feel will be weaker on there respective cross , i think the aud will be weaker than the kiwi and therefore will go

short two aud usd positions against one short nzd usd.

i am expecting that a short trade will occur at close on the dow on monday ( U.S. mon trading day ), so will wait for this signal before looking at going short. ( risk is still the dominant trend most likely initiated by equity weakness )

kiwi levels may be 79 fib action and descending trendline ( expected ) or if we are very lucky a run to just under 80 ( would be a gift )

watch the italian bond rates, 7 % seems to be tipping point , market was closed friday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND