Nzd.usd

[Valuegrowth]

Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.

Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at the sight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted tothe situation.

There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar

1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.
2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers,boosting our domestic output.
3. New Zealand andAustralian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefitbecause the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

In the short run NZD can appreciate against AUD while having some volatility.However both AUD and NZD will continually go down against USD while having small rebound and volatility time to time. In the past NZD has traded as lowas 0.39 against USD. In the recent past NZD traded around 0.80 against USD. Now it is trading around 0.78 against USD. Now the currency cycle has changed and over valued currencies will go down gradually. When AUD go down against USD, NZD too will go down against USD in the same manner. We can also see falling interest rate in Australia and New Zealand too will follow their cousin sooner than later just like in Europe and USA in the past.In short still we have not seen biggest drop in NZD against USD. I believe after bitcoin and gold both NZD and AUD can go down dramatically.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Pumice]

Worth shorting the NZD with this Fontera botulism issue?

[Valuegrowth]

I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

WOW...sudden fall in the kiwi
I don't think the market expected the RB to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5%

[Valuegrowth]

If I am correct it is true AUD hit 8 Years low against NZD recently. This situation could change during next 24 months. Just like stock markets currencies also have cycles. I believe NZD could depreciate against USD and GBP faster than AUD in the coming months. In the medium run and long run NZD could depreciate against AUD rapidly. It is time to study currency cycles. I consider NZD as number on overvalued currency in the world now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[winner69]

Marketwinner - be good if the NZD fell against the Dirham. Would give a better return on me Marakesh Express (ME) shares

ANd me Aussie share would be a good bet as well eh

[Bobcat.]

When Equity markets drop, money flows into hard currency, which is not the NZD but (yes, still) the USD. This happened last Friday night, and will happen again next time (later this week?) that the S&P500 and DJIA fall sharply away.

My pick is that the NZD/USD will fall over the next month or two. The trigger may be tomorrow morning's FOMC statement, projections and Yellen's speech (7am NZT)...although I'm mindful of the modern Fed placing a very high priority on its comms and market manipulation. She's new and will not want to scare the markets or upset the boat (not just consumer confidence but also her Bankster bosses). I'm expecting lots of positive vibes re the US Economic 'recovery' as she talks it up...which may lift the DOW and S&P500 momentarily, but like any good cocaine hit, the hard reality of excessive debt, relatively high Corporate P/E ratios and derivative risks will bring Equity markets back to earth not long after. It's then that I will be shorting the NZD/USD.

Trading to it.

BC

[Bobcat.]

I purchased BEAR.asx this afternoon - only 5% of my portfolio but it's my first parcel, and if it drops under 1800 I'll be buying more.

Re shorting the NZD, I use Interactive Brokers and pick the best FOREX combination before taking a position. I need to analyse a bit more completely but initial impressions see CAD and NZD both weakening against the USD. AUD probably as well but more so once their Reserve Bank Governor talks it down again, as he likes to do - to bolster his tax revenue from the mining sector and delay interest rate cuts.

That's how I'm reading it at the mo' but like I say, I've not yet completed my FOREX analysis. I'll let you know when I've done so, and have traded a currency combo, if you like - by PM?

[Valuegrowth]

Marketwinner - be good if the NZD fell against the Dirham. Would give a better return on me Marakesh Express (ME) shares

ANd me Aussie share would be a good bet as well eh

Dear Winner69

I gave up following markets which are situated very far away from NZ. So Morocco is not under my radar. I decided to follow Asian Pacific markets including their currencies. Only exception is USA market and USD. Because still it is number one reserve currency in the world. . NZD is still stubborn. Some are talking about parity with AUD now. Do you have any idea about this with your number of years experience in this region of market? Thank and regards