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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #1541
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 20-04-2014 at 08:02 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  2. #1542
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Over valued NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now. We may have to apply ‘Be fearful when others are greedy” for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. The time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

    http://www.american.com/archive/2014...eally-numbered

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

  3. #1543
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    Weaker dairy prices could drive the New Zealand dollar further down. Now BNZ expects the currency to fall to US79c by year's end. I think it may go to around US70c by the end of this year. I also believe it could go down to as low as around US$50 during next 18 months. As I expected we could see fall in New Zealand dollar against other currencies such as AUD, USD and Asian currencies from the second half of this year.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research.

  4. #1544
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    MW, what do you base your predictions on? Surely not dairy prices alone?
    You are right. I believe in stock market, commodity and currency cycles. There are also cycles for business and industries. Some cycles last for a longer period. New Zeeland lost export competitiveness for some industries due to higher NZD. There were some hot money in NZD and AUD as well. What will happen if they unwind those positions? I was wary about forecast for AUD when it was trading nearly par with USD. Remember AUD became so hot I can remember one analyst forecasted that AUD would trade 1.50 of USD. After that what happened was intelligent top currency investors started to short the AUD. For me NZD is more vulnerable than AUD.

    How do you think about following link? According to following link money inflows into New Zealand after the financial crisis helped the New Zealand dollar to go up by 85 percent against the U.S. dollar. Even we find these types of things in other countries as well. These are just predictions. Crisis will come when nobody is prepared in any country at any time. It is not limited to New Zealand. Crisis may come. These crises create opportunities too.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...d-in-disaster/

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

  5. #1545
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Just like dairy prices both NZD and AUD also will fall against USD in the coming months.

    Both AUD and NZD are more vulnerable to bad news. I don’ think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.Fed Stimulus Withdrawal policy will also hurt both New Zealand and Aussie Dollar.AB forecasts predict the Australian dollar at US87¢ for the end of September and US85¢ by end 2014.Three is a concern around the sustainability of Australia's triple-A credit rating. According to some analysts the Australian dollar would fall in line with the dip in the iron ore price to below $US100 a tonne. Consumer confidence is also not that good.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  6. #1546
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=SimonHouse;485303]Marketwinner - I genuinely am interested in your forex post above. perhaps you might link to the website that you

    Simonhouse-Do you think everybody who buys NZD and AUD are investors? No. There are currency speculators, traders and other sophisticated players who use different types of instruments. They didn’t have place to park their hot money. They found places like GOLD, NZD and AUD. They know everyday cannot make money by betting in one direction. We need seasonal adjustments to our portfolio to reduce our risks. We have to adjust our portfolios and strategy by following market trend, currency trend and commodity trend. Lower NZD is good for the export sector. Unemployed youth will have some opportunities in export companies. Continues higher or lower currency rate is not good for any economy. It is a warning sign for coming crisis.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  7. #1547
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I very often Google on topic that I like and then I read them If I find something interesting. The most recent was link from Australia. I couldn’t save it and if I find it I will forward it to you. If you type NZD on Google you can find lot of things. Not everything I read take as 100% correct. However there are some intelligent writings on www. There are lot of things such as 10 year chart on currencies on www.

  8. #1548
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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    nzforex
    asb securities

  9. #1549
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    http://www.centralbanking.com/centra...serve-currency

    ECB sees no clear rival to US dollar as global currency

  10. #1550
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    https://www.igot.com/static/send_money
    I haven't tried this & don't know any one who has but may be the way of the future ?
    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    any helpful idea's on the best place to transfer $400k NZD into USD, my bank wants to charge me 2%

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