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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #1571
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    This NZD/USD rate is the lowest it's been since 31 May 2010 - when it touched 67c before rising sharply. Yes, we rely a lot on dairy, and since the EU took off it's production quotas three months ago, global prices have been sliding, but our economy is not in the doldrums and IMO in better shape than it was back in 2010.

    The GBP/NZD this week rose to 2.329 which is the highest it's been since Sept 2009...and it's about to test (bounce-off?) a price close to that again this morning. Support the kiwi...and reap the rewards.

    Discl: now long.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  2. #1572
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    And still falling today after the latest milk auction .6720 !!
    how about .6709 !!

  3. #1573
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Have you looked at the NZD/USD's downward trend-line for this week? The bottoms on 29/6, 30/6 and today line up...which often (not always but often) produce a third bounce...in fact the third (like today's) is usually more pronounced.

    Of course there is another downward trendline to be a bit cautious about (which is why I often use stops). Last month's bottoms on 6/6, 18/6 and 24/6 indicate we might get a fourth at around .6705 today...but that's so close to my buy price I won't bother placing a stop.

    ...now .6712 and looks to be holding, even with the AUD trading weak. If the AUD/NZD cross fails again to reach 1.14 (as it did yesterday), we might find that yesterday's 1.1385 head and shoulder pattern is confirmed.

    Should be an interesting day's trading - pivotal IMO.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  4. #1574
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    how about .6709 !!
    Cannot see it breaching .67 ATM but if another fall in dairy next time then who knows , at least the dairy boys get some respite in the dairy price via the dollar

  5. #1575
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Hi Bobcat look forward to reading further analysis. I have some AUD from my time living there I am waiting to convert and some USD as well, so am pleased with the NZD dropping. From what I can tell the NZD is falling through AUD and USD support levels quite easily?

  6. #1576
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    Cannot see it breaching .67 ATM but if another fall in dairy next time then who knows , at least the dairy boys get some respite in the dairy price via the dollar
    WELL sods law now .6701 !!

  7. #1577
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Unhappy

    I should never have given up my day job. Back to the drawing board....

    ...edit: Oh, wait a minute - could this be a rebound? If it breaks thru resistance at .6706 then I'll get bullish agin.

    A shocking Trade Balance across the ditch (t.b.a. 1:30pm) could stifle any rebound here of course. We'll see in around 40mins. I've just gone short on the AUD/NZD at 1.1410 to hedge against the impact of a disappointing result.
    Last edited by Bobcat.; 02-07-2015 at 11:58 AM.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  8. #1578
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    WELL sods law now .6701 !!
    WELL .6680 low for the day !!

  9. #1579
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsup View Post
    WELL .6680 low for the day !!
    Solid downtrend don't you think?
    I have been short for awhile, but just about to exit my last one. (under .6655) but I expect this to keep going. RBNZ cut in July, Fed hike in September and its game over for the NZD.

  10. #1580
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Get in boys - the Kiwi will not be this cheap again for a long time. Time to go long (IMO) against either the USD, CHF, GBP or JPY. Double tops/bottoms are a sure enough signal for me. Not against the AUD, that's come off a lot already over the past 24 hours.

    Discl: Now long against the CHF and USD.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

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