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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #21
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Yes 5906 in May 2004 was end of wave 4

    quote:Originally posted by Nurg

    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  2. #22
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    "Trade with an empty mind --- think about it!"

    With a CD on.

    Cheers
    Miner

  3. #23
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    Nurg

    quote:Where did this 5th (wave) start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?
    Confirming Xerofs thoughts - IMO it may be the 5th wave lower degree of a 5th wave ending diagonal, with the whole move starting in May 2004. (After the ABC correction).

    It is also interesting to note there is a Cup and Handle target in the vicinity - circa 7442.

    Xerof - I posted a divergence chart earlier in the thread on 24/2. You also made some excellent fundamental points.

    I trust both of you will continue to post on the Forex threads.

    arco



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  4. #24
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    Arco,

    will endeavour to keep you company in the forex arena - looks like you've been flying solo for some time!

    Xerof

  5. #25
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    Lot of unwinding of short EUR vs emerging markets in the past week - first sign of risk aversion? - which may carry over into the other high yielders if it gets serious...just a thought...


    Xerof

  6. #26
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    From ANZ FX dealer Alex Sinton.

    NZD/USD correction likely over in the next couple of weeks due to a few concerns on the horizon.

    NZD, AUD have run up recently along with commodities index, expect some profit-taking from that; also NZ 4Q GDP due Thursday, which tipped to show slowing growth; US Fed Reserve looks set to raise rates next week ahead of Easter long weekend, could see NZD/USD fall to 0.7270, which was December high for Kiwi, and about a 38.2% retracement of recent move up from early February.

    Alex - wasnt I saying start scaling in shorts 2 weeks ago ?
    .........Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185 area has my attention presently.






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  7. #27
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    fiddy pips on (NZ)wednesday on the short side i reckon

    FOMC announcement expected (US)Tuesday 22, 2:15 ET consensus is .25 increase

  8. #28
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    .25% is fully priced in already - mkt looks like it might want to price in a risk of 50 looking at early action today. Not bad moves at all for a Monday, esp with Tokyo out, and its USD buying across the board

    Just about had your fifty pips today already, Zyreon, trouble is the dips keep coming from ever higher levels.....prefer to wait for a set above 77 cents, for 1000 to 1500 pips (or stop entry under 7150, for broadly same return)

    That ol' saying: buy dollars, wear diamonds is being rehe****d by the fat lady but not quite ready yet to hit the stage for the live performance IMO !

  9. #29
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    Hmmm, phonetically speaking, "rehurse" has that ass word in it, so gets the old **** inserted by the censors- I learn something new every day

  10. #30
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    quote:18/3 -
    Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185
    area has my attention presently.
    NZD tumbling nicely and those shorts at
    7385/7446 are looking mighty fine.
    Gives a max profit of 302 pips.

    Current low in the last 4 hrs......7144




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  11. #31
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    Yes, well done Arco, faded in nicely. Thinking top is "in" now at .7463, and in sell rally mode from here.

    Greenspan sang on behalf of the fat lady yesterday, and his cunningly sculptured wording re inflation will hammer home the USD advantage over the next little while.

    As I said a few days ago somewhere else on this site, once the carry trades start unwinding, it'll be carnage city for the Kiwi. I think a break below .7150 is confirmation enough that the rally has turned earlier than (some) expected.

    Would be interested to see your chart updated - must have confirmed your bearish gartley. EUR will be the same I suspect (I have faded shorts in EUR from last week thankfully, but thinking the KIWI shorts will get more bang for your buck, as there will be a lot of cross selling of Kiwi,AUD, etc agst majors as well, not just USD


    regards

    Xerof

  12. #32
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    Yep good call Arco,so you guys still looking long USD?.

    Cheers
    Miner

  13. #33
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    US interest rates rising, NZ interest rates stalling.... differential converging. bearish?

    NZ GDP growth slowing. bearish?

    NZ current account deficit widening. bearish?

    Tightening monetary policy. bearish?

  14. #34
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Short term we could see a minor retracement
    soon. The uptrend line + fibs are close by.
    But once NZD breaks the line......watch out below.

    IMO look for a minor reversal around 7141
    down to 7080. (To complete EW 3 perhaps).

    Miner....all signs appear that way presently.

    Xerof...you will find more of my charts at
    Tacticaltrader.com - Cable thread may be of
    interest to you.
    (There is no uploading device on ST, which
    complicates posting images).
















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  15. #35
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    All of the above are fairly clearly in play - the only other key driver has been the strong rise in commodities, and although we have seen some weakness of late, I'm not at all CERTAIN that we are going to see a collapse in the CRB index. Does anyone have a chart of the CRB? (I have just given my Reuters service back, so am missing my fav charts at the moment)

    IMO, the USD has gained the upper hand in the short term, and we should now see a cleanout of positioning, esp if hedge funds unwind their (very) long specs in commodities, spread trades, and carry trades aggressively. So maybe we see a 2 or 3 Q rally for the dollar, then back to weakness late this year/early next. To illustrate - EUR down to 1.15 area, then up to new highs, 1.45/1.50?

    E&OE - as usual it won't be a straight line.....these markets tend to turn on a dime, as we saw Monday/Tuesday, so....

  16. #36
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    Try here for CRB

    http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RB

    Arco



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  17. #37
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    Thanks Arco - see you on the other side

    Xerof

  18. #38
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    Thanks guys,dont watch NZD/USD usualy but EUR/USD same as yesterday today long off the 7am hourly,see if they nail it back the other way again tonight.

    Cheers
    Miner

  19. #39
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    dipping below 71 into 70 ....

  20. #40
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    Might just get another lick of the icecream here - sell at 7120, to be sure of a set, or .7180 if greedy and not entirely convinced

    Xerof

    E&OE as usual

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