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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #16
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    using your intuition?

    fair enough, i think if RBNZ doesn't do anything then it could drop due to present discounting of presumed .25 increase in OCR.

    though using that reasoning would be gambling on RBNZ action.

  2. #17
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    zyreon

    It was actually more TA than intuition
    - a combination of EW, Fib, etc, etc.

    I rarely consider the fundimentals,
    - its all in the charts.

    Watch out for butterflies.....





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  3. #18
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    Current action look like printing an Evening Star derivative (Bearish Engulf) pattern, and my scaled in shorts circa 7385 are not looking too shabby.

    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due. At some point it has to happen.




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  4. #19
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    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  5. #20
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    We may be seeing an extended 5th wave, target circa 76/77 before we head lower, although the bearish divergence on the monthly RSI serves notice that a turn could happen at any moment. I will be looking to sell around those levels, which I think should be seen later this month. This should also coincide with another topping out for the Euro circa 1.3660 but thats another story.

    Remember that a lot (but not all) of the NZD strength is actually USD weakness. The balance of strength, which can be seen as outperformance on other cross rates, relates to carry-trade/high yielder demand from the hedge fund/
    CTA/real-money types.

    When these guys head for the exits, we'll see the usual carnage.....this may be triggered by a sharp increase in risk aversion, which may in turn be triggered by either a share market collapse and/or sharp sell-off in Treasuries. (or perhaps the perfect storm - both at once![:0][:0])

  6. #21
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Yes 5906 in May 2004 was end of wave 4

    quote:Originally posted by Nurg

    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  7. #22
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    "Trade with an empty mind --- think about it!"

    With a CD on.

    Cheers
    Miner

  8. #23
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Nurg

    quote:Where did this 5th (wave) start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?
    Confirming Xerofs thoughts - IMO it may be the 5th wave lower degree of a 5th wave ending diagonal, with the whole move starting in May 2004. (After the ABC correction).

    It is also interesting to note there is a Cup and Handle target in the vicinity - circa 7442.

    Xerof - I posted a divergence chart earlier in the thread on 24/2. You also made some excellent fundamental points.

    I trust both of you will continue to post on the Forex threads.

    arco



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  9. #24
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    Arco,

    will endeavour to keep you company in the forex arena - looks like you've been flying solo for some time!

    Xerof

  10. #25
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    Lot of unwinding of short EUR vs emerging markets in the past week - first sign of risk aversion? - which may carry over into the other high yielders if it gets serious...just a thought...


    Xerof

  11. #26
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    From ANZ FX dealer Alex Sinton.

    NZD/USD correction likely over in the next couple of weeks due to a few concerns on the horizon.

    NZD, AUD have run up recently along with commodities index, expect some profit-taking from that; also NZ 4Q GDP due Thursday, which tipped to show slowing growth; US Fed Reserve looks set to raise rates next week ahead of Easter long weekend, could see NZD/USD fall to 0.7270, which was December high for Kiwi, and about a 38.2% retracement of recent move up from early February.

    Alex - wasnt I saying start scaling in shorts 2 weeks ago ?
    .........Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185 area has my attention presently.






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  12. #27
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    fiddy pips on (NZ)wednesday on the short side i reckon

    FOMC announcement expected (US)Tuesday 22, 2:15 ET consensus is .25 increase

  13. #28
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    .25% is fully priced in already - mkt looks like it might want to price in a risk of 50 looking at early action today. Not bad moves at all for a Monday, esp with Tokyo out, and its USD buying across the board

    Just about had your fifty pips today already, Zyreon, trouble is the dips keep coming from ever higher levels.....prefer to wait for a set above 77 cents, for 1000 to 1500 pips (or stop entry under 7150, for broadly same return)

    That ol' saying: buy dollars, wear diamonds is being rehe****d by the fat lady but not quite ready yet to hit the stage for the live performance IMO !

  14. #29
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Hmmm, phonetically speaking, "rehurse" has that ass word in it, so gets the old **** inserted by the censors- I learn something new every day

  15. #30
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    quote:18/3 -
    Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185
    area has my attention presently.
    NZD tumbling nicely and those shorts at
    7385/7446 are looking mighty fine.
    Gives a max profit of 302 pips.

    Current low in the last 4 hrs......7144




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