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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #11
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    My Reuters EOD chart prints a Bullish Engulfing (bouncing off the 7324 Octave which appears to have possible resistance). Oanda chart looks currently like an Evening Star. Both bearish signs to be aware of.




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  2. #12
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    hmm i can get put options for up to 6 months... but then even out of the money they cost like at least 2 cent/unit e.g. 73 cents = 3.5cent

    i think with terms like that you'd be better off just going short with a wide stop

  3. #13
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Reversal is pretty close IMO

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  4. #14
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    why you think that?

  5. #15
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    I'm feeling psychic

    Scaling in a few shorts circa 7385-7446,
    with a very tight stop.

    Trying to pick tops is a high risk strategy
    - but not quite as bad as picking bottoms.

    Alternative strategy for wimps.
    Trail a limit order using CBL3.

















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  6. #16
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    using your intuition?

    fair enough, i think if RBNZ doesn't do anything then it could drop due to present discounting of presumed .25 increase in OCR.

    though using that reasoning would be gambling on RBNZ action.

  7. #17
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    zyreon

    It was actually more TA than intuition
    - a combination of EW, Fib, etc, etc.

    I rarely consider the fundimentals,
    - its all in the charts.

    Watch out for butterflies.....





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  8. #18
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Current action look like printing an Evening Star derivative (Bearish Engulf) pattern, and my scaled in shorts circa 7385 are not looking too shabby.

    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due. At some point it has to happen.




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  9. #19
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    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  10. #20
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    We may be seeing an extended 5th wave, target circa 76/77 before we head lower, although the bearish divergence on the monthly RSI serves notice that a turn could happen at any moment. I will be looking to sell around those levels, which I think should be seen later this month. This should also coincide with another topping out for the Euro circa 1.3660 but thats another story.

    Remember that a lot (but not all) of the NZD strength is actually USD weakness. The balance of strength, which can be seen as outperformance on other cross rates, relates to carry-trade/high yielder demand from the hedge fund/
    CTA/real-money types.

    When these guys head for the exits, we'll see the usual carnage.....this may be triggered by a sharp increase in risk aversion, which may in turn be triggered by either a share market collapse and/or sharp sell-off in Treasuries. (or perhaps the perfect storm - both at once![:0][:0])

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