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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #41
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Or maybe just trail a limit sell up from
    the rear using a CBL or similar technique.



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  2. #42
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    OK, enough dicking around with this consolidation rubbish - lets GO !! - 7000 by Friday - minimum, as a first stop

    0.7090 currently

    E&OE - DYOR

    Xerof

  3. #43
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi Xerof

    The law of alternation is at work.

    Eventually when 7080 can be broken
    we should get our downside move.

    Arco
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  4. #44
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Saw low .70's before bouncing nicely - like the AUD (see AUD.USD thread) should see a decent rally here to around 72 cents, from where the next decent sell off should commence

    Xerof

  5. #45
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Seeing the rally back up - possibility of getting back above 7200, maybe 7250 early this week, before it comes off hard


    Xerof

  6. #46
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Possible H&S forming on the Kiwi, with the Right shoulder coming in around the previously mentioned levels of 7250. Hmmm, I personally don't trust H&S too much. Think best idea is to have a 70 pip trailing stop entry, in case this thing just keeps going topside.

    Given its a big data week for USD, (with early talk of a widening deficit again - no surprise there I guess), might pay to play it as suggested.

    Read somewhere the USD index had a bearish engulfing candle late last week, and certainly todays early moves suggest that USD might correct lower still

    regards

    Xerof

  7. #47
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    This old bird has been solid as a rock lately, since testing that 70 cent level. Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario

    Any firm views there ARCO, contrary or otherwise?

    Xerof

  8. #48
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.

    Xerof


  9. #49
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    I closed my short position a few days ago,
    and will give you my current view tomorrow AM.

    arco



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  10. #50
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    A Bearish Engulfing Pattern has emerged
    overnight.

    I calculate possible resistance as 7263
    (or failing that 7324).

    arco

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  11. #51
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    quote:13/4/05 Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario
    quote:14/4/05 very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.
    short 2 units at 7260, and one added at 7190. Stop if .7280 is bid at this stage. No downside target in mind at this point

    Xerof

  12. #52
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Sometimes there are just too many pairs with
    nice looking Gann reversal points, etc.

    The 7263 Gann resistance mentioned would have been the
    perfect entry......Well done for getting on board Xerof.

    I instead jumped aboard the plummeting EUR and
    snaffled 80 pips overnight....

    Good trading all

    arco







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  13. #53
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Staying short, add another unit to the 3 already held if .7190/7200 seen this week.

    That should be enough risk for this puppy, then sit back and wait, with S/L in place of course[8D][8D]

    Confidence for a strong bearish decline confirmed by a break of .7015, the neckline of the H&S formation cited in earlier postings


    Xerof

  14. #54
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Added another unit last night at .7195. Now the full quota short. S/L if goes 7280 bid.



    Xerof

  15. #55
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Good Morning Xerof

    Possible resistance circa 7202 broke with quite
    a strong move negative US$ overnight.

    Further resistance could be seen around 7263 with
    major circa 7324 where various lines converge.

    Oscillator has turned up positive off the centre line (zero).

    However, you are obviously still feeling confident,
    and sitting with a manageable position if 7280 happens
    to fall.


    arco
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  16. #56
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Arco,

    just on the QT, I'm not that confident having seen the early morning price action, but will leave S/L unadjusted, as 7263 might be sufficient to contain again.

    Xerof

  17. #57
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Good Morning Xerof

    With a high of 7292 around 6 a.m
    I presume the SL was hit - unless
    you deceided to move it higher?

    arco



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  18. #58
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    stopped out Arco - looks like it might have another half cent rally left in it before down, but still keen to be short so will run a trailing stop if/once it gets above 7320

    regards

    Xerof

  19. #59
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    resold late this afternoon, with a tight s/l just above 7310. Still believe its about to roll over, so have given it another go

    Xerof

    edit: if I get stopped again, will again resell at 7335

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    if RBNZ (as most people expect) keeps rates steady next thursday it could come down a little... so in the lead up to the announcement maybe there will be this pressure downwards due to "the market" pricing it in...

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