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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #21
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Yes 5906 in May 2004 was end of wave 4

    quote:Originally posted by Nurg

    quote:Originally posted by arco


    If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.
    Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

  2. #22
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    "Trade with an empty mind --- think about it!"

    With a CD on.

    Cheers
    Miner

  3. #23
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Nurg

    quote:Where did this 5th (wave) start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?
    Confirming Xerofs thoughts - IMO it may be the 5th wave lower degree of a 5th wave ending diagonal, with the whole move starting in May 2004. (After the ABC correction).

    It is also interesting to note there is a Cup and Handle target in the vicinity - circa 7442.

    Xerof - I posted a divergence chart earlier in the thread on 24/2. You also made some excellent fundamental points.

    I trust both of you will continue to post on the Forex threads.

    arco



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  4. #24
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    Arco,

    will endeavour to keep you company in the forex arena - looks like you've been flying solo for some time!

    Xerof

  5. #25
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    Lot of unwinding of short EUR vs emerging markets in the past week - first sign of risk aversion? - which may carry over into the other high yielders if it gets serious...just a thought...


    Xerof

  6. #26
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    From ANZ FX dealer Alex Sinton.

    NZD/USD correction likely over in the next couple of weeks due to a few concerns on the horizon.

    NZD, AUD have run up recently along with commodities index, expect some profit-taking from that; also NZ 4Q GDP due Thursday, which tipped to show slowing growth; US Fed Reserve looks set to raise rates next week ahead of Easter long weekend, could see NZD/USD fall to 0.7270, which was December high for Kiwi, and about a 38.2% retracement of recent move up from early February.

    Alex - wasnt I saying start scaling in shorts 2 weeks ago ?
    .........Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185 area has my attention presently.






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  7. #27
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    fiddy pips on (NZ)wednesday on the short side i reckon

    FOMC announcement expected (US)Tuesday 22, 2:15 ET consensus is .25 increase

  8. #28
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    .25% is fully priced in already - mkt looks like it might want to price in a risk of 50 looking at early action today. Not bad moves at all for a Monday, esp with Tokyo out, and its USD buying across the board

    Just about had your fifty pips today already, Zyreon, trouble is the dips keep coming from ever higher levels.....prefer to wait for a set above 77 cents, for 1000 to 1500 pips (or stop entry under 7150, for broadly same return)

    That ol' saying: buy dollars, wear diamonds is being rehe****d by the fat lady but not quite ready yet to hit the stage for the live performance IMO !

  9. #29
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    Hmmm, phonetically speaking, "rehurse" has that ass word in it, so gets the old **** inserted by the censors- I learn something new every day

  10. #30
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    quote:18/3 -
    Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185
    area has my attention presently.
    NZD tumbling nicely and those shorts at
    7385/7446 are looking mighty fine.
    Gives a max profit of 302 pips.

    Current low in the last 4 hrs......7144




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