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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #31
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Yes, well done Arco, faded in nicely. Thinking top is "in" now at .7463, and in sell rally mode from here.

    Greenspan sang on behalf of the fat lady yesterday, and his cunningly sculptured wording re inflation will hammer home the USD advantage over the next little while.

    As I said a few days ago somewhere else on this site, once the carry trades start unwinding, it'll be carnage city for the Kiwi. I think a break below .7150 is confirmation enough that the rally has turned earlier than (some) expected.

    Would be interested to see your chart updated - must have confirmed your bearish gartley. EUR will be the same I suspect (I have faded shorts in EUR from last week thankfully, but thinking the KIWI shorts will get more bang for your buck, as there will be a lot of cross selling of Kiwi,AUD, etc agst majors as well, not just USD


    regards

    Xerof

  2. #32
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    Yep good call Arco,so you guys still looking long USD?.

    Cheers
    Miner

  3. #33
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    US interest rates rising, NZ interest rates stalling.... differential converging. bearish?

    NZ GDP growth slowing. bearish?

    NZ current account deficit widening. bearish?

    Tightening monetary policy. bearish?

  4. #34
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Short term we could see a minor retracement
    soon. The uptrend line + fibs are close by.
    But once NZD breaks the line......watch out below.

    IMO look for a minor reversal around 7141
    down to 7080. (To complete EW 3 perhaps).

    Miner....all signs appear that way presently.

    Xerof...you will find more of my charts at
    Tacticaltrader.com - Cable thread may be of
    interest to you.
    (There is no uploading device on ST, which
    complicates posting images).
















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  5. #35
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    All of the above are fairly clearly in play - the only other key driver has been the strong rise in commodities, and although we have seen some weakness of late, I'm not at all CERTAIN that we are going to see a collapse in the CRB index. Does anyone have a chart of the CRB? (I have just given my Reuters service back, so am missing my fav charts at the moment)

    IMO, the USD has gained the upper hand in the short term, and we should now see a cleanout of positioning, esp if hedge funds unwind their (very) long specs in commodities, spread trades, and carry trades aggressively. So maybe we see a 2 or 3 Q rally for the dollar, then back to weakness late this year/early next. To illustrate - EUR down to 1.15 area, then up to new highs, 1.45/1.50?

    E&OE - as usual it won't be a straight line.....these markets tend to turn on a dime, as we saw Monday/Tuesday, so....

  6. #36
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Xerof

    Try here for CRB

    http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RB

    Arco



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  7. #37
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Thanks Arco - see you on the other side

    Xerof

  8. #38
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    Thanks guys,dont watch NZD/USD usualy but EUR/USD same as yesterday today long off the 7am hourly,see if they nail it back the other way again tonight.

    Cheers
    Miner

  9. #39
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    dipping below 71 into 70 ....

  10. #40
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Might just get another lick of the icecream here - sell at 7120, to be sure of a set, or .7180 if greedy and not entirely convinced

    Xerof

    E&OE as usual

  11. #41
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Or maybe just trail a limit sell up from
    the rear using a CBL or similar technique.



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  12. #42
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    OK, enough dicking around with this consolidation rubbish - lets GO !! - 7000 by Friday - minimum, as a first stop

    0.7090 currently

    E&OE - DYOR

    Xerof

  13. #43
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi Xerof

    The law of alternation is at work.

    Eventually when 7080 can be broken
    we should get our downside move.

    Arco
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  14. #44
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Saw low .70's before bouncing nicely - like the AUD (see AUD.USD thread) should see a decent rally here to around 72 cents, from where the next decent sell off should commence

    Xerof

  15. #45
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Seeing the rally back up - possibility of getting back above 7200, maybe 7250 early this week, before it comes off hard


    Xerof

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