Nzd.usd

[zyreon]

my forecast for this week is sideways movement.

CPI on Thursday if it's too high could raise risks of an OCR increase, which may pose an appreciation of NZDUSD risk. - so this could be a barrier to further downward movement. hmmm

I think the catalyst for a move down to and past 65 will be the next fed rate hike

I'm looking for an eventual move down into 64-3 within the next few months, what are your thoughts?

[Xerof]

Sorry, been away for a while, taking little miss Xerof to airport.

Yes, a few days of consolidatory upward pressure may be on the cards IMO before the big kahuna south again.

Arco might like to tell us more precisely where Major Gann has regrouped with stout defence.... my guess would be where last weeks bombing spikes took us.... 0.6770/.6805

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Interesting to look back at the figures from
Thursday to see how they worked out.

....Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.

Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear before departing further south
to tackle Leonardo Pisano's 50 stationed at 6695.

Low of 6679 fits in nicely with Leonardo Pisano's 50 .
Spike to 6805 fits in nicely with Ganns post at 6835

The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.

I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.

[peat]

from platform news re the AUD/NZD (still relevant to this thread)

[AUD/NZD] firms above 1.1000 handle after a corrective pullback last week. This dip demand attracts corporate and funds interest close to 1.0940-30 area. Bullish sentiment remains intact for retest of last Wed's 1.1070 target. A slow grind higher while fx market awaits for a slew of NZ's data this week. ANZ jobs data and NZIER qtrly survey are first on line tomorrow, retail sales on Wed and inflation data on Thurs. NZD will make or break week. Recent soft data has seen a slowdown from its peak. Solid base at 1.0930 (01 Jul low), s-term resistance at 1.1040.

[peat]

and more...
[NZ PREVIEW] NZIER's Qtrly Survey of Biz Opinion (QSBO) 22.00GMT is one of the most important set of data regarded by the Central Bank. Biz confidence and own activity indicators are all well expected to fall, consistent with the plunge seen out in the recent NBNZ biz survey. But it will be the survey's latest update on capacity/labour constraints that will set RBNZ's policy direction and clinch whether it needs to tighten monetary policy further. Whilst the NBNZ survey is not a definite strong guide to these QSBO measures, it's inflationary components all notably softened in June, suggesting a similar easing will occur in the QSBO survey; and proving a rate hike will be increasingly difficult to be justified by the hawkish central Bank.

[zyreon]

sheesh now I know how a manic depressive feels
LOL

up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid

might just have to swap it for an August option... not too confident of a return to 66 before the fed rate hike in Aug - I have a feeling that it might just crab along sideways until then, fed rate increase will probably be the catalyst for a sub 67 move

on the other hand CPI tomorrow... and US trade, hmm time to play with the "giant 3D puzzle" (quote from market wizards book)

[slam]

Retail sales down .6%
This may help turn the upward correction
Cheers
Slam

[zyreon]

mmm good figure to cap OCR

[Xerof]

It's too quiet here on the threads guys - everyone licking wounds, rueing missed opportunities, reading the chapter on money management[xx(][xx(]

quote:Arco: The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.

I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.

Got into the zone and a bit more but good call there Arco.

quote:zyreon: up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid

Hope you didn't do anything rash on this one Z


FWIW, and I'll stick my gonads on the line here - we should now see 6690 level broken, in the first leg of the big kahuna - sell rallies to .6800 (I'm already short slightly under that) if seen, or stop enter at 6680 IMVHO, DYOR, caveat emptor etc etc

Xerof

[zyreon]

nah called advisor, had a chat about NZDUSD, mostly told me what i already knew, few other interesting tidbits.

ended up taking profit on that jul put this morning though, a mere 350%, looking to re-enter on a bounce - preferably somewhere around the 68 mark, for expiry in October, my view is sub 65 by then