Nzd.usd

[peat]

might well have some support on fundamentals i.e yield differential which is still quite high.

[Xerof]

you're right there Peat, there's been a few hundred mill to be bought for eurokiwi and uridashi issues this week, and I'm hearing the market is structured short too, so it does need demand to reduce before it'll slip away. Ironically, the best thing for it may be a huge short squeeze.....

[Xerof]

Seeing the short squeeze now - this could get nasty if it can get back up through 6805 - would retest 6870 again.

Broken out of the triangle (clearly) to the topside now, so expect some follow through, but keep a clear perspective on what Greenspan is going to come out with over next 48 hours - if he's more hawkish than market is pricing in, then the house of cards on all pairings should collapse

For NZD - resistance around 6800, stops above 6805/10, heavy resistance at 6870
still sell break of 6715....

Xerof

[peat]

Platform news from a couple of hours ago - me a bit slow tonite

A correction higher for [NZD/USD] is underway as a UK name is reported buying, this following French based bids yesterday. 0.6720 has provided very good support this week and is becoming something of a downside range parameter as it protects 0.6690 stops just below. Nzd/Usd's sell off last week came amid a sharp decline in NZ bond yields as demand far outstripped supply, however CB repo operations put into force this week have smoothed this and allowed yields to return to slightly higher levels, thus providing short term NZ$ support. The overhang of stagflation as NZ growth slows despite strong price pressures is a drag for the Kiwi however, as is the potential for a change in Govt in upcoming elections. As such sellers remain keen into 0.6800-30 and should cap rallies.

[Xerof]

Has strong resistance right here around 6870/75, but if this breaks, next resistance will be 6905, 6930, then 6990

MACD's are positive in short term charts, but still very negative in weekly, so this is still a countertrend rally/consolidation IMO

Line call on whether it peaks here....watch other pairs for confirmation. A late Friday short squeeze would come as no surprise....

Xerof

[zyreon]

yeah a bit naive to think it would go all the way down without taking a breather

looking at the calender September has a lot of events and data releases, if we got a procession of bearish events and data for the NZDUSD could venture into 65/sub65
[e.g. FOMC, RBNZ OCR, NZ BoP, NZ Ca/c, US GDP, NZ GDP, US CPI PPI, etc]

for the mean time best i get some studying done

[Xerof]

Well, a half hearted attempt to break the strong resistance at 6875, only getting just above 6885.

Safe to stay/get short now IMO

[peat]

[NZ WEEK AHEAD] June's trade balance features Wed alongside NBNZ's latest biz outlook, but overwhelming focus will be on Thursday's OCR review. The multitude of soft data which has emerged over the past few wks favours RBNZ unanimously keeping it's cash rate unchanged at 6.75% when it releases its review at 21.00GMT. Focus will be more on whether RBNZ eases back on its extremely hawkish views. But this is highly unlikely; with the undercurrent of domestic and housing price pressures present within Q2's CPI, set to see RBNZ retain its strong tightening bias and reiterate that any easing is still a long way off. Mkt pricing is pricing ard a 15% chance of a rate hike next Thurs and seen implying a full 25bps rate cut in the second half of 2006.

[peat]

NEW ZEALAND] Trade deficit widened out to -NZ$522m in June vs a revised NZ$-61m deficit (piror -NZ$25m) in May, causing the annual deficit to deteriorate further to a record -NZ$5.18bn from -NZ$5.05bn in the yr to May. Figures were broadly in line with forecasts, with both exports and imports seen falling on an annual basis to NZ$2.56bn (-5.1%) and NZ$3.08bn (-0.3%) respectively. While the rate of increase in imports is slowing, they remain well above exports. A trade deficit is thus likely to persist in 2005, consistent with the current account deficit expanding to around 7.5% of GDP for the yr to June 2005.

[zyreon]

hmm, some good bearish news there.

though methinks 68even will be a barrier, held by tomorrows' RBNZ announcement

could be good for a risky play... if RBNZ does nothing and says the same ol then maybe the risk of RBNZ will be priced out... [I dunno i don't care either i have options, just casually watching and waiting for now]