Nzd.usd

[BackOffice]

Todays retail sales 1.8% ahead of the expected 0.8%, seems to have had an impact.

[peat]

AUD crossrate hasnt change much tho...

[arco]

Welcome BackOffice.

Technically 7008 had the possibility to
act as support with Fib50 @ 6990 just below
lending a hand.


1.0986 is a Gann resistance for AUD/NZD

arco

[Xerof]

Monetary Policy Statement

no real surprises again - still have tightening bias, with an acknowledgement from our independent lever puller that, despite what the pollies are saying - that the tax cuts won't be inflationary - they will tighten again if fiscal loosening proves inflationary (IMO it will, especially if National's tax cuts are implemented)

Only curious forecast is the TWI track.....

quote: 2H05 1H06 2H06

90-Day Bill (Avg) 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
NZD TWI (Avg) 69.50 66.25 63.25
CPI (Annual) 3.50% 4.00% 3.25%

If the TWI follows that downward trajectory, then you can be assured of a tighening in the OCR, IMO

This little gem may be the cause of the hesitation to simply hoover the Kiwi post announcement

What they seem to be implying is that NZD will underperform on general rallies of majors vs USD, and/or "outperform" on sell-offs

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Chaps

Thanks for that insight Xerof.

Technically.
The figures I stated yesterday held support.
EOD. Nice strong white candle which may be
heralding the start of Wave 3 of Wave 3 if
my EW counting is correct.

arco

[Xerof]

Arco, agreed.

An EOD close above 7090/95 would provide some comfort for a nice trendy wave 3 move towards Claxby Pluckacre

The rally from 0.6866 to 0.7123 was impulsive (5-wave), with the recent retracement to 7010 being corrective (3-wave), according to an EW mate of mine.

Stops on any longs should now be just below recent lows around 7010

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Xerof

I'm not an EW purist but I believe W3 of W3
is supposed to be a strong one.
We shall see.

http://www.genuki.org.uk/big/eng/LIN/ClaxbyPluckacre/

arco

[Xerof]

Hehe,

thanks for the geographic guidance.

Yes wave 3 should get us well over the equator, into Lincolnshire, and maybe a cleansing ale at the Marmion Arms in Haltham?

Xerof

[arco]

Xerof

Ah, the Marmion Arms



Not too familiar with that particular pub,
(its near Horncastle),but I do know the Red Lion
at Revesby quite well. (It's just up the road from
Claxby Pluckacre where my grandfather once lived).

arco

[BackOffice]

Looks like NZDUSD may stay above 0.7 for a while.

• NZ$500 million Eurokiwi overnight 14/9/2005
• Talk in market of NZ$3.9 billion Uridashi on way next few days
• Cullen talking about higher OCR with tax cuts