Nzd.usd

[peat]

According to the Danes the commodity currencies are an accident waiting to happen
Martin says sell anything over 70 and sooner or later you'll make money. I tend to agree.

[arco]

Yes I agree with the Danes this time, - the turn is not far away with the action playing around the Butterfly net and a polarity line assisting with resistance.

[Xerof]

The points in brackets show my reasoning for last comments, but can also see the other possibility which you may be following Arco (Blue).

Thought my forming bearish butterfly had cleaner lines.[:I][:I]



Let me know if I'm way off the mark......


Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Yes I see when you are coming from. Its very tempting but I try not to get too bogged down with too many incomplete patterns.

I am trying to work more on completed patterns and then I can calculate a target, so my selection will look different to yours.

There are 2 completed patterns within this chart, and the blue box is the target for reversal.

Marry that up wuth a few confirming indicators and Ganns yer uncle and Fannies yer aunt.

[Xerof]

Thanks coach, very helpful

[peat]

shorted at .6959
+20
will have to sleep tho.. so have a 30 pip trailing stop in place. hmm not much chance of making too much using that but it will minimize losses, and leave some exposure to the downside.

[peat]

theres an article in the herald re NZ interest rates
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectID=10349785

and, from the platforms news feed :

Stops tripped under 0.6950 have sent [NZD/USD] lower in tandem with Aud/Usd, leaving the cross trapped in narrow ranges. Technical players will be eyeing the break of 0.6950, which marked the base of an ascending range, and will now be looking for further losses towards technical targets in the 0.6870 and 0.6895 areas. However, bids noted in the 0.6900-15 area will provide an initial obstacle to these hopes. Although a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to provide the Kiwi with any significant prop, the downside is likely to become increasingly supported ahead of the Oct 27 rate meeting, at which a 25bps hike is widely expected. There is little on the data front, with ANZ job ads Weds, though the ANZ PMI due Thurs is likely to be the focus of significant interest.

[arco]

Repelled very nicely from the Butterfly net. My auto short got hit overnight, so I am in - boots and all.

[Xerof]

Well done Peat and Arco

Arco, is your second completed formation in the chart above an example of a gartley which mutated into a butterfly?

If so, I can see why one would need to be careful with standing as a buyer at the 'expected' gartley turn level. I guess thats why you prefer to have trailing stop entries once the first level is reached.

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Yes, most Butterflies go through the Gartley stage and that is where the danger lies. Just one good reason for care with entry unless you have other compelling evidence to confirm a possible reversal. (e.g Gann, EW, other structures).

arco