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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #781
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    whoops..............................
    Last edited by arco; 18-08-2007 at 05:24 PM. Reason: wrong thread
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  2. #782
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    update on chart ....... violent to the extreme
    frustrating really ,knew it was going to happen ,waiting for it to happen .. but when it happened just got a few nibbles. i have a couple of colleagues who are not really into the whole trading thing, more your long term , big picture guys . they both took out long term short nzd dollar postions ,one through options the other through leveraged account, 6 month time frame and they got it all , im sure there is a lesson in that , the pot of gold is definitely in the big picture moves.

  3. #783
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    fibonaccis nailing it!

  4. #784
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    Arco,

    Interesting eh! So what's your call from here?

    gravitating towards first port of call - 0.7020 perhaps?
    Success is a journey AND a destination!

  5. #785
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    7027 to be precise is what the picture I posted would suggest - but its done a fair chunk of that already....
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #786
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    well it got to the 7027 (and now much lower) but only after 7150 got hit first!! my golly gosh thats some range.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #787
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    You're not wrong there Peat. Some rather nervous folk around

    We are now coming into some heavy traffic around the 0.6880 - 0.6920 area, including the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the Friday 17th low. As a result I have tightened up stops now. But my word, I must say I love these swift moves (when on the right side!).

    At this stage the move from the 17th is clearly an ABC correction. The question for me is are we currently in a X wave to be followed by a further ABC or are we at the beginning of the next impulse wave down. If we take out the low of the 17th then something "ugly" is happening. A hard landing perhaps?
    Success is a journey AND a destination!

  8. #788
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi All

    I prepared this weekly chart yesterday.

    The brown box at the top of the chart is from the Butterfly pattern starting mid 2006 which has been forming in the wings all that time (see my post and chart #698). The completion? of this long term pattern formed a new Green bearish butterfly, which gave over 1400 pips and with the action being at the first target (green) box now.

    rgds - arco
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  9. #789
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    and where do you see it falling to

  10. #790
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    Hi Red

    The wave count has a number of possibilities, so for now look at the uptrend line for possible support/target (circa 6500). If that breaks check with me again and I will give you the lower BF target box parameters.

    I am presently riding the action down with a trailing stop until it gets hit.

    regards - arco
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  11. #791
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    how big is the trail arco
    it bounced over 100 pips y'day arvo/evening. you trail larger than that ???
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #792
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    Hi Peat

    Apologies for any confusion.

    I had a very Major Gann support (Major+3) at .67266 where remaining shorts
    were auto exited. A Dead cat bounce of sorts was sure to follow, therefore.....

    I took a smaller long position with auto exit at the 1st Gann resistance .71784 (a tad early unfortunately)

    Re-entered short again after bounce off old uptrend line and break back thru
    Gann resistance, stop now trailing.

    The wave pattern is confused at the moment, so its hard to know exactly where
    the action is going next. Keep an eye on the Major Gann supports mentioned, because
    if they and the weekly uptrend line break the target could be alot lower.

    Present Gann calcs

    Active Resistances
    Minor .7178, Intermediate .7411

    Active supports (potential targets)

    Minor .6842,

    and below that
    Intermediate .6694 / Major .6665 / .6590

    GTA - arco
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  13. #793
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    i shorted from 7120 last night (on the way back up ) with target 6950 but only had a 30 pip stop so alas a few pips too stingy on the stop and got burned , quite disappointed when I saw how close i was to getting 170 pips.

  14. #794
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    I'm stopped out now but will re-enter shorts below 6880. Overall a good day - puts the dinner on the table! :-)
    Success is a journey AND a destination!

  15. #795
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    Smile

    Caviar & Chips?
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