sharetrader
Page 6 of 83 FirstFirst ... 23456789101656 ... LastLast
Results 101 to 120 of 1658

Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #101
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    Arco, is there a bearish butterfly forming on the 4 hrly chart, or does the top formed on 30 April, being a smidgeon higher than the previous peak, negate such a formation. If it is forming a butterfly, right wing will have a way to go yet (unfortunately for my small short possie)


    TIA

    Xerof

  2. #102
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Good Morning Xerof

    There is certainly a Butterfly on the 3 hour (and
    a possible Gartley on the daily). I would class the
    start point on the 3 hour as the 29th April high.
    It's not absolutely perfect, but still looks reasonable.

    Yesterdays long legged Doji shows indecision, but
    the oscillator has slliped back zero positive.
    So hard to be 100% sure of the next move at the moment.

    Did your SL get taken out or not?

    arco



    ___________________


    ___________________

  3. #103
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default


    Thanks, Hmmm, I can't get 3 hr charts - any links to suggest?

    Without the benefit of a 3 hr chart, are you saying the right wing is in place already, or is last nights high just the LHS of the formation (in which case I should buy back on any dip to 7300ish I suspect)

    No, the high was .7378 paid (ANZ, WPAC), .7375 highest bid (Saxo)

    TIA

    Xerof

  4. #104
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default

    Xerof

    You could always open a demo account with Oanda.
    The charts are fairly basic, but you will be able to get
    3 hour (although there are no 15 minute charts available).

    Right wing could be in place based on Fibonacchi
    projections. This is a bearish pattern, so I would
    be selling a break of a recent pivot, trailing a
    short up behind, or whatever technique takes your fancy.

    arco



    ___________________


    ___________________

  5. #105
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    OK thanks - BTW I had a sell order last night at 7378, but not filled - see highest bid comment above....but did get some GBP out at 1.9065 earlier today on that inexplicable brief spike

    Sold GBPUSD 1.9065 09-May-05 05-May-05 20:56:10

    can't seem to be able to post an image off my trade station, but thats off Saxobank.

    Don't like to talk about deals done in hindsight without backing it up with evidence

    Xerof

  6. #106
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Xerof

    Similar here, I had a cheeky short on GBP placed at 9085...
    didnt quite get touched unfortunately. (9078 was highest[V])

    ........now if that had been a SL it would have spiked
    and grabbed it....but thats sods law, (or stop hunting!).

    Images you will have to grab a screen shot
    (unless you can get a web address off the properties box).

    A good program I use is Screen Print Gold (free
    for personal use...make sure you check the personal use box).
    You can then place your image on a 'image host' or post it to
    TT as I mostly do. (ST does not have an image uplifter).

    If you need more help with that, let me know.

    arco








    ___________________


    ___________________

  7. #107
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,314

    Default

    cant you just hit Alt/Printscreen and then paste into any application eg WORD and get a picture??

  8. #108
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    Arco and Peat, hi peat good to see you back - do you only trade the first Friday of each month, you volatilty junkie you


    working on both suggestions right now

  9. #109
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,314

    Default

    no Xerof - I trade Eur/USD all the time - (just a few 10k positions open at any one time - so its pretty miniscule stuff ) but keep forgetting to check this forum out coz I'm mostly on the global-view one. And in the past this one has been pretty quiet.
    And I dont have much to say really coz I dont know as much about it as you guys.
    Its great to see that your presence has boosted activity here tho.

    Kiwi still trying to fly huh. Wont it ever learn?

  10. #110
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Xerof

    I really think one needs to be on broadband with
    access to Bloomberg to trade the news release in
    real time and benefit from NFP.

    I'm not that desperate to be up at 8.30am EST
    and so if I have any positions open I usually
    tighten stops in case things go the wrong way.

    arco










    ___________________


    ___________________

  11. #111
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    Of course Peat, only pulling your leg.

    your alt+print works OK but I can't crop enough out in order to not display the entire family jewels (and in any event can't upload to ST anyway)

    Got that download Arco, do you have to reload it each month? I seem to have been directed to the platinum version and irrespective of what one does its only a 1 month trial. But anyway, will have a play

    Peat, when the Kiwi eventually realises it can't fly, gravity should have the appropriate impact, i.e terminal velocity, but not sure its ready for that just yet

    Xerof

  12. #112
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default

    Xerof

    The Platinum special ediation works for one month, after that
    the Gold is totally free until your hard drive crashes.

    At that time, game over, re-apply.

    There is also a nice little image editor with the program.
    After that, save file and manipulate in 'Paint' or other
    paint programme. Easy as ABC.

    Have fun..

    arco



    ___________________


    ___________________

  13. #113
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Not sure if this can affect the NZD?

    May 10, 2005

    The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is investigating a claim that there has been a deliberate release of the foot and mouth virus on Waiheke Island in the Hauraki Gulf.

    Biosecurity director Barry O'Neill says the claim, which was made in a letter to the Prime Minister's office on Tuesday morning, is probably a hoax but is being taken very seriously.

    MAF has activated its disease management response systems.

    A controlled area notice has been issued which restricts the movement of livestock and risk material on and from Waiheke Island while the investigation is underway.

    There are no restrictions on people travelling to or from Waiheke Island. A police inquiry into the origin of the letter has been launched.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_national...%3fformat=html

    ___________________


    ___________________

  14. #114
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    Hmmm, that possibly explains the sudden dump from 7320

    In my experience, and I was very close to it in my past life, any rumours about farms being isolated have always caused a rapid sell-off, until proven otherwise. Obviously an outbreak of F&M is an absolute disaster for the NZ economy, as the CjD story a year or so ago now could have been. This one is slightly different, being a letter to Helen, and smacks of being a hoax. But you never know, terrorism takes unusual forms.

    IMO a confirmed outbreak would take 20 to 30 cents off the Kiwi inside a day, with almost no recovery until its cleared.

    I'll stay short....ahem

    Xerof

  15. #115
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,314

    Default

    yeh its been huge topic of conversation on the gv forum. but seems like its a hoax. Hope so - dont wanna miss out on Waiheke wines

  16. #116
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    333

    Default

    Howdy folks!

    I've been lurking this forum for a little while with great interest as it's the only forum I've found with New Zealand resident currency traders.

    First I'll tell a little bit about myself.

    I'm located in Christchurch, I'm self-employed, and I'm fortunate enough to have quite a bit of free time to dedicate to my new "hobby".

    After several months of demo account trading with several companies I opened a small "for real" account with Oanda in January.

    The good news is I'm up 125+% on my account to date.

    The bad news is I probably only have enough experience and understanding of currency trading to be highly dangerous.

    If I could best describe how I trade it would be short-term trading in the direction of long-term fundamentals.

    The five currency pairs I monitor are:

    NZD/US
    EUR/US
    GBP/US
    JPY/US
    CAD/US

    I currently have an NZ Dollar short at .7313 "working without a net".

    Which brings about one of my bigest concerns:

    I "work without a net", meaning no Stop-Loss, for two reasons:

    1.) I'm not comfortable in my applying the tool appropriately

    2.) If I trade the "right side" of a long-term trend it will eventually come right if I go into the red....or so my thinking goes.

    I'm keen to learn about technical analysis, and would be keen to join any currency trading clubs or possibly sign up for currency related training if any such things are available in the Christchurch area.

    Thanks in advance for your time and best of luck trading.

  17. #117
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Welcome Lakedaemonian.

    Your input/ideas will be gladly received.

    125% - you are certainly doing very well. Congratulations.

    You say you are working "in the direction of long-term
    fundamentals". On what information are you basing your
    longer term trades ?

    Regards
    arco




    ___________________


    ___________________

  18. #118
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    333

    Default

    quote:Originally posted by arco


    Welcome Lakedaemonian.

    Your input/ideas will be gladly received.

    125% - you are certainly doing very well. Congratulations.

    You say you are working "in the direction of long-term
    fundamentals". On what information are you basing your
    longer term trades ?

    Regards
    arco




    Hi Arco.....thanks for the welcome.

    My business interests include import/export(mostly import), so I'm acutely aware of relative pricing differentials between certain currency pairs(particularly NZ related) for various goods. This has led to my interest in FOREX trading

    The "fundamentals"(if that's what they really are) I tend to go with are as follows:

    Big Mac Economist Index(and other identical consumer commodity prices)
    Durable goods price differentials(big one for me)
    Relative real estate price differentials(harder to judge...but I THINK it can be of value)
    Interest rates
    Trade surplus/deficits
    Immigration figures(I think they are of value when considering the NZ dollar...in my opinion I think they could be inversely proportional)
    Defense spending(minor one, but worth considering high US spending versus low NZ spending as % of GDP)
    Averaging out currency "fair value" opinions(big one for me)
    Relative tax and tariff policies
    Central Bank decisions
    Historical currency pair performance(big one for me)

    BASICALLY everything I can possibly absorb about a particular nation's economy and currency, but throwing out what I fail to understand.

    It seems to be working so far......but 4 months is hardly an adequate sample size...we'll see how it goes!

    That's why I'm keen to learn more about technical analysis.....if I can get "the stars to align" maybe by using both my trading confidence will rise and hopefully reduce my risk a bit.

    We shall see

  19. #119
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    3,030

    Default

    Hi Lake....can we call you Ian? welcome aboard the forex express.

    Those are certainly 'big picture' fundamental elements to be using for shorter term trading, but seems to have worked for you so far.

    you'll find useful tips on TA at www.tacticaltrader.com and there are plenty of leads on www.fxstreet.com

    Unfortunately, there's almost too much out there, especially on the net.

    Perhaps you could invest some of those returns and buy a decent book on the subject. Arco, maybe you could recommend one or two from your collection?

    cheers

    Xerof

  20. #120
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Xerof/LDM

    Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy

    arco


    ___________________


    ___________________

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •