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29-08-2006, 03:51 PM
#591
Member
looks like it.
market doesn't expect any more hikes from FOMC, and market also pricing in small chance of RBNZ hiking rates again... and not lowering for a long time. And with no evidence of a hard landing any time soon in NZ the kiwi looks fairly well underpinned
(which is rather irritating given that i bought a put a few weeks back)
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03-09-2006, 07:51 PM
#592
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03-09-2006, 08:43 PM
#593
Hi Roddy
This is not a valid pattern because Point C on a Gartley or Butterfly cannot be lower than point A.
However try starting with X at your point B, and see what you come up with........
Regards
arco in QLD
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04-09-2006, 09:27 AM
#594
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04-09-2006, 01:18 PM
#595
Hi Roddy
X - Correct
A - Correct
Now convert your B into D and see if you can
find a Butterfly.
Regards - arco
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04-09-2006, 02:35 PM
#596
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04-09-2006, 03:39 PM
#597
Hi Roddy
Well done, I can see you will soon become an
experienced Butterfly spotter.
Butterfly set-ups often complete btw 127-162, so
thats where to generally start looking for other
clues that may confirm a possible reversal.
Good netting
arco
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04-09-2006, 04:10 PM
#598
Roddy/Arco,
It's currently toying with the 127.2% fib of XA, but the formation itself is not particularly harmonic, CD having well exceeded AB (which was around 6490, a 138.2% as well btw)and BC was only 38.2%
FWIW, I like to look for clusters of resistance, drawn as extensions of previous retracements, as multiple fibs are more powerful.....
0.6620 area is a 138.2% and a 2.618% cluster zone, whilst the 0.6735 area holds a 1.618% and a 4.25% cluster, using the XA leg, as well as the previous two significant retracements BC and the small retracement within CD.
Interestingly, a bearish '3 drives' formation looked on for a while, but this was blown away late last week on the break of 0.6500.
So for what its worth, my pick is not to stand in the path of the freight train just yet, assuming it can conquer this 127.2% level. The next layers often act as magnets as well....
regards
Xerof
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04-09-2006, 04:19 PM
#599
Having said that, I recall Arco mentioned that Major Gann and his merry men could be lurking around this 60/90 area - any word from the frontline Arco?
Corporal Xerof
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04-09-2006, 05:44 PM
#600
Hello Xerof
Good to see you posting again.
Agree, the Butterfly is not perfect in its harmonics, however the previous Bullish models* harmonics were also in disarray, so it's probably worth keeping an open mind with any odd shapes for their possible potential. IMHO the key is to be aware of their exsistance, but only act once other factors fall into place.
FYI Gann is still stationed at the figures mentioned, so that is one additional point to consider.
*That particular formation has given around 630 pips currently, so as I say I never totally discount imperfect patterns.
GTA - arco.
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