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Thread: Nzd.usd

  1. #1201
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    The bullish uptrend on NZDUSD broke down middle of Nov, since this time it has been ranging sideways.

    The fundamentals long term for the NZDUSD remain bullish, however it is currently overbought, and is riding the coat-tails of the AUDUSD, and the improved outlook of the Australian economy.

    End of 2010 I see the NZD hitting 0.80 again, but in the the next two months we should revisit the 0.70 mark making pushing 0.69 again.

    I currently have a small short position on the NZDUSD from 0.7420. There are support levels at 0.73 and 0.71 on the way down, and will reduce the position by one third as we hit these levels. I have stops in place at 0.7450 and 0.7460 close half the position if I am wrong.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  2. #1202
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    quite well thought out article on the kiwi....

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...0620872&pnum=0

    Kiwi's wild ride not totally random

    Andrew Gawith is a director of Gareth Morgan Investments.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #1203
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    NZ's lower than expected 4Q CPI will likely add to the view Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep Official Cash Rate on hold until mid-year.

    Stats NZ says 4Q CPI down 0.2% on quarter, lower than flat result picked by economists. RBNZ had tipped 4Q CPI to fall 0.2%.

    Annual inflation accelerates to 2.0% vs annual inflation rate of 1.7% in 3Q, still well within RBNZ's 1%-3% target band and lower than 2.1% expected by market.

    Non-tradables component, which strips out imported prices, +0.1% vs +1.0% in 4Q while tradables component fell 0.5% vs +1.6% in previous quarter.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  4. #1204
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    So we are expecting some short-term weakness in the NZD over the next few weeks or so?
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  5. #1205
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    Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

    It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  6. #1206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silverlight View Post
    Closed out my last third of my position today 6995 today.

    It may move all the way to 6900, but I will sit on the sidelines and wait. If it does hit 6900 I may look to take a very small long position.
    NZD Hit hard by 4Q employment data: 6.5% to 7.3% Unemployment rate Vs an expected 6.8%

    Good time to short? Fundamentals might be catching up....

  7. #1207
    Adventurer Silverlight's Avatar
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    I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

    However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

    Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  8. #1208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silverlight View Post
    I am still fundametally bullish on the NZD/ USD longer term as per my post on the 15/01. I think we will revisit 80 by year end.

    However I went short at 74, and closed the last of my position today, after that announcement, it moved 100 pips on the increase in unemployment, so nice gain to add to the pips I had already take off the table at 73 & 71.

    Technically it could go lower, if may even go as far as 65 if the markets get really volatile, but most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent.
    At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."

  9. #1209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pumice View Post
    At what point would you be bearish on the NZD? Personally I am short the NZD but I do agree with your coment "most people who trade on fundamentals on a yearly basis go broke, as markets can remain irrational to fundamentals longer than most can remain solvent."
    TA.. showing NZ$/US$ at a critical point...
    Bouncing on its 68.5c support line which is also the old Fib 61.8% retracement line.

    80c by October 2010 would seem a big ask if the 68.5 support breaks


    Last edited by Hoop; 08-02-2010 at 12:53 AM. Reason: I've seem to have lost the abilty to produce big incredible charts..any help appreciated

  10. #1210
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    pretty strong move up on the kiwi since 1 AM last night shown here in hourly candles. Although I have a lot of study to do (but no more day job - yay) I am going to post several times in this thread today showing different thoughts and perspectives. It would be good to encourage others to do the same... All thoughts crazy and otherwise welcome
    Last edited by peat; 07-04-2010 at 08:26 AM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #1211
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    Default Harmonic patterns approach

    Here again in the hourly picture I see the Kiwi through the harmonic patterns of a gartley and a butterfly - yes I could post this in the other thread, its always such a tough decision .
    Firstly on the left there was the gartley where there was a 61% retracement with a bounce from there and then a 76% retracement with the rise from there being 120 pips. Fibs are not shown but trust me they are spot on. So it performed as might be expected.

    Then to the right and still playing out is a butterfly pattern encompassing the gartley. Here we see a 76% retracement (a bit less actually) down to the marked A point at 7030 followed by a rise to 7080 and then the fall down to 6966 which was the maximum allowable in a butterfly at 162%. Then this really strong rally overnight going straight back to the 7060 area which is now the support/resistance being just above the A point and according to the theory the trigger point for a long.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #1212
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    I'm staying short, I see it bouncing off the 100 day SMA. and still within a channel.
    But it is struggling with the 200 day SMA.
    Last edited by Pumice; 07-04-2010 at 06:31 PM. Reason: Needs graph

  13. #1213
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    the 7060 area which is now the support/resistance being just above the A point and according to the theory the trigger point for a long.
    bought some more in the dip at 7020 closing that now at 7120 .... technically the butterfly has almost played out at this region. but the big wins come from holding out for some more....
    Last edited by peat; 10-04-2010 at 12:06 AM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  14. #1214
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    looked like some good opportunities to buy in the dips today.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  15. #1215
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    You guys have a 1 year outlook for USD?

  16. #1216
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    Pumice that looks like a great "Bull flag" in your chart from 7 April.

    May be looking for a breakout above the top downtend line?
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  17. #1217
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    yeh exactly silverlight.... it seems as though its heading for his upper trendline as well. i've been playing the long side, but taking profits when they're there and then having another go after the falls....

  18. #1218
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    I cant say I'm convinced, I'm still looking for the downside. However I have unrealised losses that a close to being stoped out. So I may be convinced soon.

  19. #1219
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    Bull flag break out?
    Attached Images Attached Images
    ~ * ~ De Peones a Reinas ~ * ~

  20. #1220
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    Certainly appears that way. Could be a bit over bought, but it looks like people love the Kiwi!!

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