Nzd.usd

[Xerof]

No -I haven't had any positions in Kiwi for some months Arco. And yes, the Major indeed put up a particulary ferocious defence around that 6560/90 level - the enemy seems to be running for the hills at the moment [B)][B)]

regards

Xerof

[arco]

Re mentioned recently on the Butterfly/Gartley thread...............

"Looking pretty strong at the mom.....depending on ones stance, an EOD reversal pattern btw 6600-6720 on the daily might be the catlyst for a nice short IMO".

6658 was the high this week and the weekly chart has printed a Harami pattern, with the EOD looking like it might complete a 3 Falling pattern next week.

Watching this one closely now for the possibility of a confirming reversal signal.

regards - arco

[roddy]

Hi Arco
Yes i have been watching this pairing as well and picked up a few pips on a straddle on last weeks annoucement,which never followed through.
also of interest is standard error channel,though i suspect its not a stand alone indicator each time it has hit the upper extreme it has retraced significantly further adding to the likehood of a reversal
it appears this butterfly might be double brooded?



cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

Hi Roddy

I don't personally find the SEC of any use in forex trading - it may be of more use in share trading where volume is available.

My charting tip - keep everything as simple as possible.

regards - arco

[arco]

Hi All

Worth watching closely now....we are hovering within a potential reversal point IMO.



regards - arco

[peat]

hope no one jumped in prematurely.... up 3/4 of a cent today....

I read on the global view forum a few days ago when quite a few were recommending shorting NZD just after the trade deficit figures came out and one of the older wiser posters said 'shorting the kiwi is fraught with difficulty'. I thought at the time that it didnt go down very far after that figure which struck me as being quite bullish

I might give this a go (short ) at 6720 level where we hit the 61.8 fib retracement from 71 ish.

[arco]

Hi Peat/All

No one should have jumped short yet as there has been no confirmed reversal signal.

The chart I posted shows only the potential reversal zone to be aware of.

I have not entered short yet - still watching for that magic signal.

Regards - arco

[roddy]

Hi Arco,
i welcome any advice, thank you for your tip Yes i will try to keep it simple,

my comment about being double brooded was referring to the red admiral butterfly which can reproduce twice in the one cycle, just a little bit of rhetoric there; so for my future reference is this butterfly still valid after already having one retracement at at 127 ish



cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

Hi Roddy

Yes, I consider the Butterfly still in play. The reversal at 127 turned out to be just a short term profitable part of the normal wave action, but we can now keep our eye open for another nice reversal signal.

There is a Gann calc circa 6720 which could come into play (mentioned a few posts ago).

Regards - arco

[Xerof]

the 161.8% target zone is looking very attractive at the moment. Looking for signs........

Xerof