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28-09-2006, 09:22 PM
#631
and now the Danes (jyskebank) have a go - from todays report by Lone Olesen
Bad evidence keeps piling up against the NZD. The latest
surprising rise due to the new rather hawkish stance from the
RNBZ is thereby starting to loose its magic.
Bad trade figures, another historic high reading on the balance of
payment deficit (9.4% of GDP), and furthermore a VERY
aggressive finance minister - Mr. Cullen - constantly trying to
pressure the NZD/USD by verbal intervention, finally made the
yield addicts surrender in the first round.
History does'nt repeat - but it often rhymes - keep that in mind as
the present situation brings memories of last year and not least the
start of 2006 alive anew. A period where NZD after the same
economic hardship, and a just as aggressive Mr. Cullen fell off a
cliff, which took many market participants by surprise.
In the wake of Cullen's latest appearance, where he bluntly
revealed that a NZD/USD around 40.00 wouldn't surprise him at
all, the cross is now steering towards troubled waters. A definite
break/close below 65.50 would open up for a revisit with our first
target at 64. Be aware though that once 64 gives way to the
downside, we might be in for a new levels below the latest bottom
at 59.20.
NZD/USD looks like an accident waiting to happen. Best skip the
presumably attractive yield pick up, as it could come at a much too
costly price.
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02-10-2006, 09:55 AM
#632
Member
Hi Arco/All
Have you any analysis Arco on how far the current short on the Kiwi will extend to.
as you will be aware it has fallen through the 127% level,would it be reasonable to assume we could see 100% fib level .6425 if it breaks 6520 which is current uptrend line
i have two shorts in play .6675 and 6592,
I ask the question because i tend to exit trades to early on hourly charts etc instead of letting my profits run!
A good recent example is i went short gbp 18939
and exited with only 39 pips missing a further 200 pips.
cheers cadet roddy
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04-10-2006, 10:22 AM
#633
I was thinking yesterday that kiwi would become a sell again at .6635 (it reached .6620). Targets unknown but 30-50 pip trailing stop is one way of approaching it.
Im currently flat tho.
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05-10-2006, 10:30 AM
#634
Hi Peat
Waiting for a reversal signal to confirm a possible EW1-2
regards - arco
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13-10-2006, 10:54 AM
#635
Junior Member
What do you guys make of this one. Rising wedge on the hourly ready to break?
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13-10-2006, 11:28 AM
#636
seems we're all playing it via the AUD huds.... which is going a storm!
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13-10-2006, 12:23 PM
#637
Junior Member
Cheers peat.
Re: AUD/NZD, looking pretty good alright. I have a small long on from Wednesday, thanks to you guys and you're informative posts.
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19-10-2006, 11:30 AM
#638
From ANZ
NZD/USD May Test US$0.6880 If RBNZ Hikes
NZD/USD entering consolidation phase in preparation for extension into 0.6680-0.6720 zone on next week's expected central bank rate hike, says ANZ Bank; pair last 0.6638 vs yesterday's 0.6624 local close. If RBNZ confirms market expectations by hiking rates, continues with hawkish line adopted at Sept. review, NZD/USD may rise as high as 0.6880. Still, with rate hike already priced in, there's a high risk NZD/USD will return to 0.6400-0.6500 even if RBNZ goes ahead with hike, with market focus turning to Australia. Support pegged at 0.6610 today, topside cap 0.6660.
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24-10-2006, 03:07 PM
#639
RBNZ Bollard May Decide To Buy Time - BNZ
RBNZ Governor Bollard may yet decide against a rate hike despite there being "strong case" for one, says Bank of NZ; tips RBNZ to hold fire, on view Bollard may well feel that, compared to signposts outlined in September policy statement, economic data on balance haven't provided enough of an upside surprise to justify hike. Says governor might cite higher-than-expected NZD/USD, falling headline inflation as excuse to buy more time, while simply warning of another hike. Tomorrow's 3Q CPI to be watched carefully, but unless outcome significantly varies from consensus of +0.8% on-quarter, +3.6% on-year, market pricing for hike likely kept at 70% going into Thursday's rate review
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25-10-2006, 04:10 PM
#640
Hello all
Here's a Pitchfork chart (cus I know Peat is getting right into them now )
Looks good..... ya!!
Sunshine Coast 26 C and very nice.
regards - arco
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