Nzd.usd

[peat]

no change to interest rates.

[arco]

Morning Peat

Yes, I think the charts have been showing us the picture for some time. Nice fall already towards the blue fork tyne.

Regards - arco - [8D] its very hot already on the SS Coast and only 7.55 am


Bollard Leaves Rates Unchanged
26/10/2006 10:17 AM
NZPA
Home owners, businesses, and unions can breath easier after Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 7.25 percent on Thursday.

Dr Bollard said he could not rule out another rate rise in the current cycle and any easing of policy remained a considerable way off.

"The balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside," he said in his regular six-weekly review of the OCR.

With inflation running outside the bank's 1-3 percent target range for five quarters, it was always going to be a tight call whether he hiked.

A slim majority of economists had forecast he would raise the rate, even though the economy has been sluggish for over a year.

However, Wednesday's Consumer Price Index rise of 0.7 percent in the September quarter was lower than anticipated, resulting in the annual rate falling from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent.

"Since our September Monetary Policy Statement, there has been a significant improvement to the near-term inflation outlook, mainly as a result of the decline in oil prices," Dr Bollard said.

He said the bank expected lower fuel prices, together with the recent rebound in the exchange rate and a change in the make-up of CPI to produce an unusually low December quarter CPI reading.

These were however only temporary factors and, apart from the likely favourable effect on inflation expectations, were not expected to materially affect medium-term inflation.

He said the policy outlook was little changed from September when he changed tack, saying another tightening could be needed, whereas at mid-year he had indicated he was done with the tightening phase.

Dr Bollard said indicators of medium-term inflation pressures remained significant.

Modest economic growth in the second quarter had been in line with the bank's forecasts and there had been a further rebalancing of demand away from the domestic sector and towards exports.

Continued strength in most of New Zealand's international markets and a downward trending exchange rate would support that rebalancing, he said.

However, on the domestic front, the housing market remained resilient supported by net immigration and continued house lending expansion by banks at low interest margins. Dr Bollard expressed concern that falling petrol prices would fuel a pick-up in household spending.

While inflation pressures appeared to be abating, there were some indicators of resources pressures. High capacity utilisation and a tight labour market "continue to signal caution".

Dr Bollard refused to take questions to explain his decision.

The decision not to hike would put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, particularly against its counterpart in Australia, where inflation has risen above New Zealand's rate and where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates at least twice more this year.

The New Zealand dollar, at U66.17c shortly before the decision, has risen around 10 percent in the last quarter, surprising currency experts and hurting exporters.

The announcement caused the NZ dollar to fall against its US counterpart to US65.74c immediately afterwards.

Against the Australian dollar the kiwi dropped from A86.85c to A86.42c.

Find this item at:
http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmone...481810,00.html

[arco]

Hello All


Evaluating this cross using the Ichimoku (one glance) technique on the monthly chart.

In the past Tenkan crosses (TX) on the monthly chart have been very reliable. The TX crossed a few months ago, and more recently the action has retraced north to the Kijun (red) which appears to be acting as resistance.

The whole scenario is looking bearish now, and IMO we could see a nice drop in the NZD. One other point to remember is the bearish Head and Shoulders that would form if/once the price drops to the circa 5950.

regards - arco

[peat]

on a shorter time frame arent we seeing a bullish gartley tho?

[arco]

Peat

Maybe - but remember Gartleys are notorious for developing on into BF's.


Also the previous chart is a monthly, so fluctuations of a minor degree make very little difference on the greater scale.

We need to check that chart again at the end of the month.

arco

[slam]

Shorts in play since .6670
See how we go, but possible 5 looks like it may be near the end, so may abc before continuing it's next leg down.
Tight stop and will reset on bounce

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

damn retail trade[:I]

[peat]

tempted to see this as a new opportunity to long the AUD/NZD

[slam]

Hi peat
Yes went long again this morning AUD NZD.
May be premature but around 1500 is the uptrand support

Cheers
Slam

[roddy]

Hi Arco,
i havent seen the ichimoku before,is it very reliable,
do you know where i could download Ichimoku from into metastock 7.2
Are the Tenken crosses moving averages
Have been short kiwi,but defying the odds has traded as high as .6820 this morning,so on the sidelines at present,will be interesting to see if 6720 will now become support or whether the present levels represent opportity to go short again.