Nzd.usd

[FTG]

Strictly speaking you are proabably right in saying one shouldn't jump until the neckline break has happened.............But yes, doesn't this one (so far) look so tempting and juicy! My theory is if other signals are starting to give notice then take action but with good stops in place.
Kiwi currently appears to be back filling, perhaps back to the 0.69 region - watching & waiting!

[miner]

Hi guys I think much the same,as if I see a pattern forming and think it is going to test "X",then jump on as long as there are enough pips before "X",then you can set a stop just above or below "X" so if doesn't go through your safe,and if does then your in the money.

To me this is often safer than buying at "X",not a great example but look at my usd/jpy chart I will post in a tick.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi all
Been following this H&S for a few months now
I have gone short twice now when over .7 has failed
Working out nicely so far
Trailing stop picks up the pips.
Will continue to do so for the next year or so[:0]

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

NZD/USD - Nearing a Short Term Top?

Tuesday, 20 February 2007 14:07:45 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

Is NZD/USD ready to reverse? Let’s see how our Trend Reversal Thermometer list stacks up:


Slim chance of Short Term Top in NZD/USD
The NZD/USD has staged an impressive rally over the past week and today’s candle suggests the possibility of a turn. However our picking tops and bottoms thermometer indicates that there is only a slim chance for a reversal. The only technical supports that we have for a reversal are the JPercentile indicator on the daily chart and Elliott Wave formation. Only a weekly basis, the JPercentile indicator still points to potential gains. This is supported by the fact that the currency pair gapped open on Sunday night. There is no significant support and resistance level until 0.7100, which is essentially 100 pips away from here. Risk reversals are right in the middle of the band and NZD/USD volatility which is at 9.40 percent is not conducive for a top. Therefore even though it may be tempting to look for weakness in the NZD/USD here, our thermometer suggests that you wait for a test and failure of the 0.7100 level first.

[Steve]

With the latest talk being a NZD/USD of 80, how many times has the call come out of parity of the NZD/AUD which has never eventuated?

My guess is that the NZD/USD may go up short-term, fail to hit 80 then start its decline...

[FTG]

Ahhhh.

This latest movement is just beautiful! If she breaks down through 67.40 then 66.90 there could be a big capitulation to the downside. Perhaps a suprise "no change" to the OCR on Thursday will do the business. On the other hand this is starting to look oversold so I'm starting to tighten stops a little more now.

[Steve]

I closed out my long USD position at .6794 after a quick run this morning. I probably should have put a stop in place at say .6800 and let it run further, but I am still getting the confidence to rely on a stop order to enable me to step away from the screen while in a trade.

Perhaps my personality is suggesting that i am a 'control freak'?[]

[peat]

Since Jan 5 is NZD drawing out a expanding triangle formation?
Described in John J.Murphys 'Technical Analysis of Financial Markets' as usually ocurring at major tops and representing a market that is out of control and unusually emotional.

Rare and difficult to trade the article below suggest waiting for a doji
see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...gformation.asp

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes, sometimes also called a Megaphone top.

I'm firstly looking at the area 7202-7230 for
signs of possible resistance / reversal.

regards -arco

[peat]

my fib levels suggested 7197