Nzd.usd

**arco** · 28-03-2007, 11:23 AM

Tues EOD high of 7203 formed a Shooting Star which could mean the
bulls are running out of steam.

A nice long black today would complete an Evening Star pattern
and give a bearish message.

regards -arco

**peat** · 28-03-2007, 03:10 PM

yes I've shorted from 7176 with stop at 7233
my oanda daily candles are now looking dark cloudish

**peat** · 01-04-2007, 10:52 PM

Well my book says the broadening formation is rare and yet hey, the kiwi had one just over a year ago and look what happened after that! Is history going to repeat itself?

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I've also added in my fibonacci 161% and 261% and 423% extensions. These are taken as the extensions of the original wave from 0 to 100 and provide resistance and potential turning points.
The first two (on the left and in the middle of the picture )are extending down.
The last fib on the right shows upward extension from the original wave at daily closes of 5958 to 6252. 161 and 261% extensions are less respected here but so far the 423% has held.

The up and down extensions seem to have a lot in common in terms of resistance levels.

**Bilo** · 02-04-2007, 09:15 AM

Nice chart Peat

Will history repeat?
Exporters hail Kiwi's fall
08 March 2006

By MARTA STEEMAN

Exporters are cheering the almost US1.5 cent fall in the Kiwi dollar and the prospect of futher declines in the next six months.
The dollar dropped overnight on Monday and yesterday to an 18-month low of US65.12c caused by international investors concerned about the New Zealand economy.
Part of the fall is due to investors expecting the gap between high Kiwi interest rates and those of other countries to lessen in coming months as official interest rates rise in the United States and Japan. "

The US isn't raising rates this time and NZ is......

Unfortunately Bollard and the Bank economists haven't accepted the obvious empirical relationship between relativity of international interest rates and exchange rates. They seem to think that microeconomic activity will change or at least explain the world economy. The only way NZRB interest rate movements will affect inflation in this country is to force a recession. Bollard took a step closer last month. His bag of tricks is dead unless he lowers interest rates.

**arco** · 02-04-2007, 10:17 AM

Hi Peat

Here you will find some interesting info on Broadening Tops from Bulkoski.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html

regards -arco

**Contrarian** · 03-04-2007, 01:37 PM

Gidday

Accumulate USD

Regards
Ps. They come in different colour bank notes now :-)

**peat** · 03-04-2007, 04:08 PM

do you have a rationale there Contrarian.

**peat** · 04-04-2007, 07:35 PM

This current situation on the NZD is a good demonstration of the way the fib ext method is suppose to operate and here , even works on a short term view.
Note how each ext beyond 100 i.e to either 161 or 261 extension has always retraced back to its previous level eg 100 or 161. That is the most certain and hence tradeable part of the chart pattern.

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