Nzd.usd

[FTG]

Interesting comments from Gocurrency. Now that some more water has gone under the bridge it would be interesting to see what their thoughts are now.

The 40 week rythym doesn't seem to be the current play though. I find time cycles are also hardest to identify. Just when one finds a clear cycle, everyone else seems to pick it too and hence naturally destroy it.

I get the feeling that 0.7880 is about to get blown away. But maybe that is me just projecting my wish as I'm currently long the kiwi!

[arco]

More pain ahead..............

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy

[roddy]

Hi FTG/ARCO
Your long looking pretty good at the moment FTG
Any thoughts on long term batterfly Arco with D at.8050

[FTG]

Hmmm.

I reckon the .8050 might just be a "mid afternoon break" for the kiwi. I'm placing us in a smaller wave 3 at the moment - target 0.8330! -approx Late August/ early September
Scary if I'm right with that one. If so, I would guess it will be more of a story of the USD falling off the shelf than anything.

[arco]

Hi Roddy

Onwards and upwards it appears

Theres a possible margfly if you take the
start from March 05.

aroc

[Viking]

They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.

Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~

and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate???[xx(]

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Viking

They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.

Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~

and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]

Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...

[peat]

History includes economics tho. My NZ history studies at AKL University were centred on economics
Marx was a historian

[FTG]

Have now tightened up my stops on the long position. Chart is starting to look like a triangle, possibly an ending triangle. If so a thrust in the next few days to your .8050 would make sense Roddy. Followed by a sharp downwards move.

[bogus1]

i do think the kiwi is going higher, in some ways cullen's latest rhetoric will in itself add fuel to the fire.it seems theres nearly a degree of panic in his attempts to jaw bone things down and also rbnz's intervention attempt being followed by what looks like a an almost certain hike seems surreal.is it possible bollard may just whack the market with a 50 bps rise this week let it capitulate and then stabilise rather than this slow torture. tough medicine but really he is paying the price for not raising when he should knowing fine well the structural problems in the new zealand economy mean a very average growth rate still equates to an economy running at maximum capacity.